The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could indirectly result in an oversupply of citrus and pome fruit in key global markets, according to the Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters (SHAFFE).

In a statement this week, the group said it expects "increasingly difficult conditions to maintain supply to both markets."

Southern hemisphere exporters may divert their shipments to the Russian and Ukrainian markets and send them to other destinations such as the U.S. and EU, it explained.

"This could lead to oversupply of those markets with resultant financial losses for exporters," SHAFFE said.

The historic devaluation of the Russian rouble could also make the country a much less attractive destination for exporters.

Additionally, SHAFFE foresees that this situation could "compound even further the negative impact of the current rise of production and logistical costs facing the Southern Hemisphere exporters and growers".

"Sanctions by some Western countries against Russian banks as well as SWIFT payments will lead to add to the risks faced by exporters," it said.

South Africa and Argentina are the two exporting countries highlighted by SHAFFE that have relatively high exports to the two markets.

In 2020, Ukraine imported US$795 million of fresh fruit with over 48 percent originating from suppliers like Turkey (citrus), Ecuador and Costa Rica (bananas and pineapples).

Total exports of fresh fruit from member countries  - Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Peru, South Africa and Uruguay - reached USD$54 million in 2020, representing 7% of total fruit imports market in the Ukraine.

The main suppliers to Ukraine from member countries included South Africa, which exported mainly citrus with a value of US$16 million and which represented 30% of the total value of exports registered by members in 2020.

In 2020, exports of fresh fruit from member countries to Russia reached 643,084 tons, which represented 17% of the total fresh produce import market
During the same period, the main species of fruits exported to Russia included apples, pears, and citrus, which together represented 80% of the exporters' total shipments to this market.

The exports of fresh produce from SHAFFE member countries have been on upward trend, registering a 29 percent volume growth, between the period 2017 to 2020.

South Africa and Argentina are the main suppliers of fresh produce to Russia and represent 69 percent of the total volume exported by SHAFFE member countries in 2020.