A leading U.S. avocado industry industry commentator says high inventories are putting the market under pressure, while strong Mexican imports could lead to an oversupply if they continue.

James McCormac, who edits the Californian Avocado Society's 'The Weekly Newsline', says the inventory of Californian Hass is 'troubling'.

"Anytime the inventory exceeds a one-week supply, it is a cause for concern. On Monday the domestic Hass inventory was reported to be 15.4 million pounds against a weekly shipment volume of 10.6 million pounds," he said.

"This means that the domestic avocado inventory is 2.5 days beyond a full week's supply.

"Keep in mind that this is happening at the time when  shipments for the Cinco de Mayo promotions are being loaded. The shipments reported over the weekend by AMRIC are encouraging but do not seem to be up to the challenge of a growing inventory and the pace of harvest."

He says the combined foreign and domestic inventory amounts to more than 30 million pounds, which "may be less than a one-week supply, but it is enough to be dangerous".

He says if Mexico continues to ship similar volumes of between 20-23 million pounds the U.S. market would likely be oversupplied.

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