In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the California strawberry season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

California strawberry crop is “at the mercy of Mother Nature” this year, according to Brad Rubin, the Sector Manager of Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, he predicts that production levels will recover and reach normalcy by summer.

Production in the Oxnard and Santa Maria regions, as noted by Rubin, is expected to be delayed until mid-April. The California Strawberry Commission has reported a considerable decrease in shipped trays, down by 59.8% as of March 18, compared to the previous year.

Many California producers report having to discard a portion of their strawberry crop due to damage caused by torrential rainfall. 

More than 90 percent of strawberries sold in the United States are grown in California. This is generally the time of year when California begins to ship its sizable production out of the state, however, since  many plantations were inundated by a series of storms, the current strawberry crop is either poor or late, resulting in a limited or nonexistent supply on store shelves. 

Rubin highlighted that the state is divided into three distinct regions, with Oxnard leading the market followed by Santa Maria, and the Watsonville region being the last to come online. When asked about a specific timeline for production to normalize, Rubin conceded that it was difficult to predict with certainty.

However, he estimated that it might take between three to six weeks, provided there is a warm climate to facilitate the ripening of berries for quicker distribution to the market.

“The storms are at a point where it is hard to continue getting big amounts of rain. For conventional berries, muddy fields make it difficult to get farm equipment in the field for applications and harvesting. The ground is saturated, and if it remains saturated, harvesting could be challenging,” he added.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

“As soon as the sunshine returns, we expect California strawberry farms to surge with hiring and harvesting and production ready to meet consumer demand,” says Jeff Cardinale, director of communications for the Watsonville-based California Strawberry Commission.

The imbalances in supply and demand, however, have led to a surge in pricing. Week 14 saw prices at $19.5 per package, 25 percent higher compared to 2022. 

The abrupt transition from severe drought to inundation in the state is known as "precipitation whiplash”. As global temperatures rise, atmospheric rivers, which are notoriously difficult to predict and prepare for, are expected to become more frequent and severe in the coming years. According to Evan Wiig, director of membership and communications for the Community Alliance with Family Farmers, a California-based nonprofit, while the excess rain is welcomed after three years of historic drought in California, the threat of extreme weather becoming more severe looms in every farmer's mind.  

"California has always been an ecology of extremes. We've always been a place of fire and flood and drought," said Wiig. "But it's just been exacerbated over the last several years and it's really starting to take its toll,” he added.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.