South Africa will likely increase apple exports this year as new orchards coming into production, but don’t let the statistics fool you – the country’s pome fruit growers are in trying times with the drought, and will be in “big trouble” next year if it doesn’t break. On a more positive note, eating quality is good and the industry is optimistic for some market access breakthroughs in 2016.

“There are certain areas and certain growers that are hit really hard – some of them can’t even pack half the normal volume for the export market,” says Hortgro’s Jacques du Preez in conversation with freshfruitportal.com.

The situation comes at the same time of a season forecast that will be up 1-2%, mainly due to new orchards coming into production, which were planted three to five years ago.

“So certain people have been hit hard but in total for the country we expect it to be much in line with last year at this stage,” he says.

“For this season they have to be very careful in how they irrigate – in some of the orchards you have to prioritize which you can irrigate and which not anymore; for this season it’ll be tough but we’ll get through.

“If it doesn’t rain properly this winter then next season we’re in big trouble, because some growers will have nearly exhausted their carryover capacity and capacity will probably be close to zero going into the next season.”

Sizing is unlikely to be as large and coloring will be less pronounced on average, but du Preez says there are positives to be found which can also be applied to pears and stonefruit.

“The eating quality of the fruit is exceptional this year. The sugar levels are very high,” he says.

“For the initial summer pears in the first two or three months of the season they have definitely been smaller, and there’s been a lack of cold nights.

“February was a bit better, but from January and to mid-February the nights didn’t cool down which negatively affects color and size in the early pears.”

When asked the European market’s transition to Southern Hemisphere supply, he says its uncertain how long the continent’s fruit will hold.

“There are different rumors about the stocks in Europe – some say they are good, some say they’re not going to keep, so you can’t really know,” he says.

“But I have heard that the keeping quality of the apples and pears in stock in Europe isn’t that great, and on the flip side that might be to our advantage.”

Asian outlook

South Africa’s apple industry gained access to the Chinese market in late 2014, and despite some challenges du Preez thinks volume exported to the country will rise this year.

“With the drought and the negative impact that has on size and color, China will be difficult because they prefer the redder Fujis and Galas, so we’ll probably see an increase but I don’t expect it’ll be hundreds of percent,” he says.

“From the start we said it’s a market that we’ll gradually grow.

“We are hopeful that we’ll gain access for pears also hopefully this year sometime, but you never know.”

The industry is bullish about fresh opportunities for pome fruit elsewhere in Asia as well.

“Next up also is we re-gained access for table grapes into Thailand, so next in line is apples and pears so hopefully we can get that process underway.”

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