U.S. food prices continued to rise at the historical average rate in 2023, increasing by 3.3% between October 2022 and 2023, according to USDA data.

Looking ahead, the organization's new food price outlook suggests that while prices will continue to slow down in 2024, they are not expected to decline.

Food inflation is projected to slow to about 3% in 2024, compared to 5.8% in 2023. 

Regardless, in 2024, all food prices are expected to increase by 2.9%, with a prediction interval of -0.9% to 6.8%. 

Additionally, food-at-home prices are predicted to increase by 1.6%, with a prediction interval of -4.0 to 7.8%, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase by 4.3%, with a prediction interval of 2.3 to 6.3%.

The report projects that 2024 grocery food prices will increase by 1.6%, with a prediction interval of -4% to 7.8%. Restaurant food prices are predicted to increase by 4.3%, with a prediction interval of 2.3% to 6.3%.

The Food Price Outlook forecasts the annual percentage change in prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year compared to all months in the previous year.

Among various categories, the USDA says grocery prices for fresh vegetables will increase by 0.9% for fresh vegetables and 8.5% for processed fruits and vegetables. 

Fresh fruit retail prices are predicted to increase by 0.5% in 2023, with a prediction interval of -0.1% to 1.2%.