In early March, fruit guild Frutas de Chile projected production of 62 million boxes of Chilean table grape for the 2023-24 campaign. However, development research commission Uvanova now says overall volume will be closer to 60 million boxes or fewer this season.
Uvanova President Rafael Rodríguez said the campaign is in full swing, with the largest shipments starting shortly and continuing until mid-April.
Regarding Frutas de Chile’s last estimate, Rodríguez explained that northern regions saw a decrease in volume that will most likely drive total volumes down.
“The truth is that in the north, in the Atacama and Coquimbo regions, yields have fallen by 20 to 25%. The central regions were coming in with good cargo and we expected that would offset those losses," he said. “But we think that the total volume will not exceed 60 million boxes and could be closer to 55 million.”
Despite the head start in Coquimbo, however, harvests in the Valparaíso, Metropolitan and O’Higgins regions were much later, Rodríguez explained. This was due, in part, to a colder spring.
The Chilean grape sector has been working on varietal change for years, and this 2024 the hub is set to export more licensed varieties than traditional ones.
For red varieties, Crimson remains important, Rodríguez said, but Allison, Sweet Celebration and Timco are moving up. Sweet Globe, Autumncrisp and Arra 15 are projected to be the three most exported green varieties, surpassing the traditional ones.
As for black grapes, Autumn Royal and Midnight Beauty stay strong, and Sweet Favors is set to come in with stronger volumes this year.
The 2023-24 season began with an expected drop in Peruvian volumes. Additionally, Hurricane Hilary damaged grape production in California, causing a decrease that gave Peruvian supplies a good window.
With the U.S. having absorbed most of the Peruvian volume, Rodríguez fears that, with Chile reaching the U.S. market just now, the industry could be faced with an unprecedented situation in which demand has exceeded supply for several months.
“The truth is that we have never had prices between 30 and 40 dollars for four months in a row,” he added. “We are practically alone in the U.S. market from now on, and the volumes we expect are hardly going to saturate the United States.”
The U.S. normally takes 50% of Chilean grape production, and Rodríguez says the campaign is unfolding smoothly in Asia.
“Asia is developing smoothly, and prices have been steady. In the European market, prices are somewhat higher thanks to South Africa finishing earlier.”
Rodríguez emphasized that Chilean grapes will be comfortable in the U.S. market throughout April and most of May. However, the production hub continues awaiting approval of the Systems Approach protocol. This new, more sustainable process is expected to conserve quality, the sector argues.
“We will insist, because it is environmentally friendly, it is better for the condition of the fruit and it allows us to compete on equal terms with other countries that do not have to fumigate,” Rodriguez said.
Chile and Peru will join together on Aug. 8, 2024, at the Global Grape Convention to be held at the Casino Monticello Events Center in Chile to discuss the biggest challenges of grapes worldwide.
