Mango exports from Mexico, Guatemala and Nicaragua to the United States are expected to decrease in comparison to the previous season, according to the National Mango Board’s latest report. The projection comes as the United States experiences an undersupplied mango market, in part due to a difficult season in Peru.

The report projects a 10% decrease in mango volume sent to the United States during the last week of March and first week of April. 

During the third week of March, Mexico shipped a total of 11 million boxes, while Guatemala and Nicaragua shipped 440,000 in conjunction. Mexico is forecast to experience a 6% decrease, Guatemala 5% and Nicaragua 10%. 

Mexican season underway 

Mexico’s mango season runs from January until early October, and this year it’s projected to produce 29 million boxes of its main mango varieties, Tommy Atkins, Ataulfo/Honey, Kent, Keitt, and others. The two largest mango shipments to the United States are the Tommy Atkins and the Ataulfo/Honey varieties. 

Mexico has seen an 11% increase in mango production so far this year but didn’t meet the export expectations set this past week. The annual production of Mexican mango exceeded 2.23 million tons through November 2023. Sinaloa is the state with the highest mango production, followed by Guerrero, Nayarit, Chiapas and Oaxaca. The fruit, cultivated in 23 Mexican states, come predominantly from these five states, accounting for nearly 80% of national production. 

According to a SADER report, 80% of Mexican mangos are cut, shipped and exported from April-August. March and April are the peak months for Mexican mango flowering. 

Peru supply shock

The top five fresh mango suppliers to the United States are Mexico, typically with a two-thirds share, Peru with 13.8%, Ecuador (8.4%), Brazil (8.4%) and Guatemala (2.6%), according to the USDA.

Late last year, El Niño’s warm temperatures slashed Peru’s mango production, creating a major impact on the country’s export season. The National Mango Board says the collaboration between industry and retailers, and Mexico’s early season increase, played a key role in the sustainability of mango consumption in the United States during low season. 

As of January, however, overall U.S. mango imports were down 56%, the USDA reported, to 35.7 million pounds. Volume dropped most significantly from Peru, down 73% from last January with 18.7 million pounds. Mexico also saw a notable decline from 8.9 million in January 2023 to 4.6 million this January. Brazil supplemented some of that gap, increasing from 98,000 pounds to 1.5 million.

Guatemala’s peak season begins in April and runs through June. During that time, the United States will purchase most of that supply. Guatemalan mango exports increased 16% during the 2023-24 season. About 90% of the fruit was exported to the United States.