In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we look at the US fresh mango market. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

In early 2024, the US fresh mango market encountered notable challenges, with a significant decline in import volumes contributing to rising retail prices. For the first five months of 2024, fresh mango imports were down by 22 percent compared to the same period in the previous year.

This decline was primarily attributed to a substantial reduction in mango shipments from Peru, the second-largest mango exporter to the United States. Peru's mango production faced severe setbacks due to unusually warm temperatures and adverse effects from El Niño during the flowering period, which significantly curtailed output. As a result, Peruvian mango imports fell by 71 percent, creating a notable gap in supply during a crucial period. In contrast, Mexico, the top exporter of mangoes to the U.S., typically ships mangoes from January to October, with peak volumes occurring in June or July.

Historically, Mexican mangoes account for an average of 64 percent of import shipments from 2019 to 2023. However, from January to May 2024, import volumes from Mexico were down by 5 percent compared to the same period in the previous year. The National Mango Board has forecasted a slight decrease in shipments from Mexico this season, estimated at approximately 3 percent lower than last year.

Compounding the issue, U.S. inspections of mango and avocado shipments from Mexico's Michoacán State were temporarily suspended in June 2024 due to concerns over security and inspector safety. The reduction in import volumes from late 2023 into early 2024 has exerted upward pressure on retail mango prices.

According to the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), the advertised retail prices for conventional mangoes averaged $1.53 each in the first quarter of 2024 and $1.18 each in the second quarter, both figures reflecting increases compared to the same periods in the previous year. As of July 2024, mango import volumes have now surpassed 2023 levels, retail prices have lowered but are still contending with the repercussions of reduced import volumes during the past few months and thus remain above 2023 levels.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)