By Betina Ernst, president of Top Info 

Last season shocked the blueberry industry by unfolding in a completely unexpected way, largely due to disruptions caused by the El Niño phenomenon affecting Peruvian production.

The world had grown accustomed to Peru as a reliable supplier, with yearly shipping volumes increasing to northern markets, but 2023 was different. Due to the effect of El Niño in the first part of the season, yields fell sharply and Peru exported 40% less year-on-year. Two problems arose: the decline in volumes and the unpredictability. Forecasts had to be adjusted week by week.

This explains why the sector is starting the new season with uncertainty and anxiety. How will it unfold? Will it be possible to anticipate moments of shortage or oversupply? Will it be necessary to look for more than one supplier to secure fruit supply?

Peru

Fortunately, the weather has returned to normal. It was a cold winter, even colder than expected. Blueberry crops are recovering, but there is a marked delay in ripening, as pruning was carried out several weeks later than usual due to El Niño. 

The new season began in May, but with small volumes that increased slowly. By mid-August, just over 12,000 tons had been exported, 40% less than in 2023 and less than half that of 2022. The slow pace will continue through the end of August and September. Shipments will only normalize towards the end of September. 

A higher supply is expected for October and November, with volumes exceeding 2023’s. For the last months of the season (December to February) a good rate of shipments is expected, similar to that of the previous season, so it will be a later season, but with good volumes. 

This is due to the recovery of plantations, to which new crop areas will be added. The shift towards new genetics is intensifying. Among the varieties that are becoming more and more important are Rocio, Sekoya, Eureka Sunrise, Mágica, Kestrel, Madeira, and others. 

Ventura, although an excellent variety and the most abundant after Biloxis, experienced a major setback, suffering heavily under the absence of cold weather in 2023. All indications are that it was also affected this year by somewhat lower temperatures than usual. Therefore, at present, when evaluating varieties it is also taken into account how they behave in the face of climatic disturbances; an aspect in which Ventura is not the best.

At this moment it is difficult to forecast the total amount to be exported. Experts are cautious, given the erratic forecasts made last year, added to the fact that climatic alterations continue to occur. But all indicates that the 226,000 tons of 2023-24 will be exceeded. The doubt is whether the 286,000 tons exported in 2022-23 will be reached or even a new record will be achieved with an export of 300,000 tons.

Related articles: Peruvian Blueberry Association Proarándanos adjusts blueberry exports estimate

Chile

For Chile, too, last season was not just another one, but a turning point. The downward trend in bueberry exports was halted. While another drop had been forecast, as a consequence of the reduction in surface area and varietal replacement, this did not occur.

Some 86,000 tons were exported, a volume similar to that of the previous season. On the other hand, northern buyers again became more interested in Chile, since the uncertainty of Peruvian shipments showed that it was too risky to depend on a single supplier. The better prices paid in 2023-24, especially during the first half of the season, restored some of the crop's lost profitability. More than one grower who was in doubt about whether to get out of the business opted to stay in.

But not everything was positive last season. In the second half, the higher supply, together with qualities that did not meet the standards demanded by the markets, deteriorated the business. This experience led the Chilean associations to intensify their work of demanding quality, restricting varieties, following their Quality Verification Program implemented a few years ago.

It is still too early to give a forecast. Most crops are in winter dormancy. Only in the earliest regions did the reproductive cycle begin. The winter was cold, with sufficient accumulation of cold hours. There was also sufficient rainfall, improving the water balance and partially replenishing reservoirs, many of which were in critical condition.

South Africa

In recent years, blueberry cultivation has been successful in South Africa, with a steady expansion. But 2023-24 looked different. The upward trend in exports suffered a setback. Due to weather problems, South Africa was unable to take advantage of the good momentum for southern suppliers, its exports started late and remained below the previous year. 

The 2023-24 season ended with a shipment of 21,000 tons, 12% less than in 2022-23. The outlook for the new season is favorable and production and exports are expected to recover. The winter was cold, thanks to which there was sufficient accumulation of cold hours. It also rained on time, a very important fact in a country with many water restrictions.

Crops have a good load and fruit of adequate quality. Harvesting has begun in the earliest regions, but for now the quantities are small. The first shipments have been made, following a similar rhythm to that of 2023.

Argentina

After years of deterioration of exports due to the loss of competitiveness, generated by internal problems and growing external competition, the 2023-24 season was a relief for Argentina. 

The fact that the Argentine season coincided with the Peruvian season, which was a major problem in recent years, this time proved to be an advantage. Buyers, having no Peruvian fruit available, turned their attention to Argentina.

The 6,300 tons exported meant an increase of 50% with respect to 2022, but it remains far from the levels of a few years ago. It is not possible to increase the exportable volume from one day to the next.

This year we had a cold winter, with several intense frosts. The plantations have frost protection, but this is not always sufficient. Therefore, it is estimated that there will be a loss of 10-15% in early varieties. 

The season started two weeks later and is developing at a slower pace than in previous years, as the weather is still cool. Shipments are expected to pick up pace from September onwards. A season similar to that of 2023, or at most with a slight export plus, was forecast.