Brazil's Fundecitrus has released its first re-estimation of the 2024-2025 orange harvest in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro, predicting a total of 215.78 million boxes, each weighing 40.8 kg.

The number reflects a decrease of 16.6 million boxes, or 7%, compared to estimates made in May.

This reduction is reportedly due to smaller fruit sizes attributed to warm and dry weather conditions. The weather forecasts since May, for the first four months of the harvest, turned out to be even worse, with rainfall 31% below expectations.

High temperatures during the fall and winter intensified evapotranspiration, worsening the severity of the drought. The elevated temperatures also accelerated fruit maturation, leading to a faster harvest rate.

By mid-August, about 45% of the fruit had been harvested. The historical average for the same period hovers around 30%, according to Fundecitrus.

According to the organization's general manager, Juliano Ayres, this season can be considered atypical or unusual, adding that the next estimate will provide more precise data on the fourth flowering.

"The volume of the fourth flowering is significantly higher in this harvest than in previous ones," he said. "In the coming weeks, we will conduct a field study to determine the fruit set rate and the size of these fruits. This work is necessary because the fourth flowering was underway in some plots when the fruit count was conducted in March and April this year."

Fruit Weight and Drop Rate

The average fruit size has decreased from 169 grams to 155 grams, meaning that 264 fruits are now needed to fill a 40.8 kg box—23 more oranges than estimated in May.

The fruit drop rate has been adjusted to 17.10%, lower than the projected 18.50% in May. 

The Harvest Estimation Survey is conducted by Fundecitrus in collaboration with Markestrat and professors from FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp.