The latest USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 2024 production forecast points to growth in California's table grape and peach production. 

According to the report, California’s table grape and peach production are expected to thrive this season.

Grapes

California's overall grape production is expected to be bigger than last season’s crop, which was negatively affected by remnants of late-summer tropical storm systems. The state's 2024 production is forecast to be 11.6 billion pounds, up 4% from 11.14 billion pounds in 2023.

Wine-type grape production in California is forecast to be 7.2 billion pounds, a 2% decrease year-over-year. Table-type grape production in California is forecast to be 2.3 billion pounds in 2024, a 22% increase year-over-year and above the 2020–22 average.

Hurricane Hilary struck California during the peak table grape harvest in 2023, reducing fresh grape production to its lowest volume since 1987.

Raisin-type grape production in California is forecast to be 2.10 billion pounds in 2024, up 12% from 1.88 billion pounds in 2023. Raisin-type grape production in the State is half of what it was in the late 2000s as acreage has been pulled from production.

62% of California's grape production is wine grapes, 20% is table-type grapes, and 18% is raisin-type grapes.

Early-season grape prices were higher than last year. California strawberry and table grape production is expected to be larger this year, likely putting downward pressure on grower prices as the season progresses.

Monthly fresh grape prices per pound are expected to be $1.64 in June and $1.48 in July, while strawberries are expected to be $1.60 in June and $1.89 in July.

Peaches

Peach prices were lower in June and July 2024 than in the same months last year due to production increases in the Southeast and in California. The USDA, NASS August Crop Production forecast for U.S. peach production in 2024 is 719,000 tons, a 22% increase from the previous year. 

California is also the top peach-producing state. Both Freestone and Clingstone peach production are forecast to be up 16% and 4%, respectively, from the previous year. Seventy percent of California's Freestone peaches are for the fresh market, and after the USDA, NASS surveyed all states, combined with California’s freestone crop forecast, overall U.S. freestone production is estimated to be 35% larger than last year.

Clingstones are grown, almost exclusively, for the processing market. 

South Carolina and Georgia's peach production is also seeing growth after last season's freeze-damaged crops. If the season goes as expected, this could be the largest in South Carolina since 2010 and the largest in Georgia since 2016. By mid-August, peach harvest in both States was more than 90% complete.

Higher domestic production and lower prices contributed to increased U.S. fresh peach exports this season. Year-to-date exports (fresh peaches and nectarines) through July 2024 increased 50% by volume and 21% by value compared with the same time last year.

Canada and Mexico continued to be the top export destinations, accounting for 84 percent of export volume.

Cranberry

Cranberry production is up for the third consecutive year. The U.S. cranberry crop is forecast to be 8.24 million barrels in 2024, up 2% from 8.11 million barrels produced in 2023. Lower production in Wisconsin (down 110,000 barrels) is expected to be more than offset by higher production in Massachusetts (up 230,000 barrels).

Wisconsin is the top cranberry-producing state, accounting for 60 percent of the U.S. crop in recent years. Other cranberry-producing states include Massachusetts (26%), New Jersey (8%), and Oregon (7%).

In 2024, Wisconsin production is forecast to be 4.90 million barrels, down 2% from 5.01 million barrels in 2023 but above the State’s 5-year average. A cold and wet spring followed by frost and hailstorms led to a challenging growing season in Wisconsin.

Production volume in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Oregon is forecast to be at or above last year’s crop.

Fresh fruit retail prices decrease

Fresh fruit retail prices during the summer were down slightly, 0.6%, from August 2023. Apples and bananas prices, which account for about 27% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh fruit, are both down. 

The CPI reflects the average change in apple retail prices over time. The apple CPI was down 13% in August 2024. Higher volumes of fresh apples in storage continued to put downward pressure on consumer prices ahead of this season’s fall harvest.

The 2024 United States apple crop is forecast at 11.1 billion pounds, down 2% from last year. A year-over-year decrease in production is expected in 2024. 

Washington, the largest apple-producing State, the crop is forecast to produce 7.5 billion pounds of apples, 1% lower (110 million pounds) than last year, but 22% higher than Washington’s 2022 apple crop.

On the other hand, from January to August 2024, average retail prices for fresh bananas were lower year-over-year each month with the exception of June. In the first 8 months of 2024, combined banana shipment volume from the top three major suppliers (Guatemala, Ecuador, and Costa Rica) was up 1% based on data from USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, Market News.

The average retail price for strawberries was lower than a year prior for each month from February 2024 to August 2024.

Average retail prices in August 2024 were $2.34 per 12-ounce pint, down from $2.61 in August 2023. Year-to-date strawberry shipment volumes from California were up 14% through the first week of September.

The smaller supply of fresh oranges led to an increase in prices. August 2024 retail prices for navel oranges were $1.72 per pound, a 6% increase from August 2023. 

Prices for frozen concentrated orange juice are up 25% compared to last year. While total U.S. orange juice production is 22% higher this season, ending stocks reached their lowest levels in at least 50 years. In addition, several years of lackluster orange crops in Brazil put upward pressure on frozen concentrated orange juice prices.

In the August 2024 USDA ERS Food Price Outlook, the 2024 CPI for processed fruit and vegetables was forecast to be 1.8% higher than in 2023.

In 2024, the canned fruit CPI largely mirrored the processed fruit and vegetable CPI. In August 2024, the canned fruit CPI was 2% higher than last year and 5% above the same month two years ago.