Global walnut production is largely concentrated in China and California, which together account for about 90% of total production.

At Fruittrade 2024, agronomist and walnut consultant Vittorio Bianchini noted that the industry has grown rapidly since 2000, with production stabilizing and reaching a peak in 2023.

Bianchini said most production is based in the Northern Hemisphere, while Chile and Argentina produce the majority of walnuts from the Southern Hemisphere.

In 2023, global production reached 2.9 billion kilos, but the 2024 crop shows a decline.

“This season in the United States, they initially estimated a drop from 750 million kilos to 671 million, but the truth is that it is not even going to reach 550 million kilos. The initial estimate of an 11% decrease was adjusted to over 30%, which is very similar to what we saw in Chile last harvest,” said Bianchini.

The consultant indicated that nearly all global production areas are expected to lower volumes in 2024. “From here on, we face a prolonged decline in production in Chile, and the length of this decline is going to impact prices,” Bianchini said.

“The nut industry in Chile, for example, has seen zero profit margins over the past three years. Around 25% of production is slightly profitable, 50% breaks even, and the remaining 25% incurs losses,” he said. Essentially, he explained, all profits from walnut sales are spent on walnut production in Chile.

Related Article: California walnut industry crop estimate for 2024 released

Prices

Regarding price trends, Bianchini explained that due to large harvests from the United States until 2023, prices had remained low; however, as of October 2024, prices have risen.

“This year, with the drop in production, walnuts are being sold at USD 3.00 or more per kilo per box, whereas we were previously seeing prices at USD 1.35,” Bianchini said.

With these changes, marginal prices have increased up to four times compared to previous seasons.

However, Bianchini emphasized that the market should be respected, as “it is the market that sets the music, and I decide whether I dance or not. One can simply influence quality, kilos, and costs.”

The market determines price based on the quantity, quality, and movement of the fruit.

“In recent years, those who made money weren’t the ones producing 7,000 or 9,000 kilos; those who profited were those focused on quality products, so the volume equation depends on the price,” Bianchini said. He recommended maintaining a high-quality balance to reduce risk.

“We need to focus again on selling high-quality nuts, as this is what the market wants and is willing to pay for,” he advised.

To achieve quality, the primary factor to consider is good irrigation, which strengthens the connection between root and soil. “The nut harvest is built from the root because a nut harvest is not made in one season—it’s made in the two previous seasons. When a plant thrives in one season, it stores reserves, leading to better production the following year. This is where the focus should be,” Bianchini concluded.