The USDA's latest Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual focused on Canada's production forecasts a 5% growth in the country's apple production for the 2024/25 marketing year, driven by crops in Quebec and Ontario.

In contrast, pear and table grape production is forecast to decrease due to adverse weather conditions.

Imports of apples and pears are forecast to decline slightly, influenced by shifting consumer preferences and reduced production in the United States. Table grape imports are expected to increase by 2%, while apple exports are forecast to grow by 8%.

According to the report, Ontario's apple crop is anticipated to achieve average production levels but with good size and color. Rainfall was timely in some growing regions but overly abundant in others.

In British Columbia, the apple crop is also expected to be average, with apple trees having weathered a January 2024 cold event better than pear and grape crops.

Early estimates projected a 6.5% increase in apple production for Canada, with larger outputs anticipated in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia compared to the 2023/24 marketing year. Nova Scotia is projected to see a decline, while New Brunswick production is expected to remain flat.

Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia are the primary apple-growing provinces in Canada, typically accounting for around 90% of the country's production. Producers are continuing to modernize their orchards and increase plantings of consumer-preferred varieties such as Ambrosia, Honeycrisp, and Gala.

Canada is forecast to maintain its recent export pace, with a larger crop supporting an 8% growth in apple exports. A smaller U.S. apple crop is expected to create additional export opportunities for Canadian producers.

FAS Ottawa forecasts a 16% reduction in Canada’s table grape production for 2024/25 due to the impacts of extreme cold and frost in British Columbia and Ontario.

Imports of fresh table grapes are forecast to grow by 2%, as the recovery of the California table grape crop in 2024/25 is expected to lead to increased exports to Canada.