The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for the upcoming 2024-25 citrus season.

The preliminary forecast is based on data from industry associations from the Mediterranean region and the United States with data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, and for the first time, Portugal.

The reported numbers show that citrus production is estimated at 27,297,216 tons, which represents a decrease of 8.73% compared to the previous season.

The 2024-25 forecast is also 5.88% lower than the average of the last four seasons.

Total citrus exports are expected to follow a similar trend at 8,379,831 tons, down 9% from last season and 9.7% from the last four seasons’ average.

Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, said market insights received indicate a decrease from last year’s high volumes.

"This is mainly driven by Turkey returning to regular production levels after last season’s record figures as well as Egypt’s expected decrease,” he said. “Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases are constant threats to the quality, coloring, or harvest date for the production. The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability while consumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation.”

Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain's citrus production at 6.1 metric tons is down by 3.3% from the previous seasons, led by the 21% decrease in lemons from last year’s record season. The dramatic weather events in Spain are not expected to have a significant impact on the overall supply, which remains as predicted.

Italy is down by 12.3% at 2.7 metric tons, with a 17.5% decline in oranges, while Greece remains stable at 1.09 metric tons. In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is set to decrease its production by 17% with 4.95 metric tons, after last season’s record figures.

Egypt at 4.35 MT is down by 19% from 2023-2024. Morocco’s production, on the other hand, is expected to grow to 2.1 MT
(+12%). Israel’s production is also estimated to recover to 0.56 MT (+18,50%).

Additionally, Portugal, which contributed to the forecast for the first time, estimates a 3.3% decrease in the upcoming season (0.38 MT in total).

The production in the United States is expected to shrink to 4.55 MT (-4%), continuing to decrease compared to the average of the previous seasons (-11%).

Binard said the “WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcoming season. The Northern Hemisphere citrus exports will decrease by nearly 9% compared to last season to 8.38 MT, while processing will decline to 5.16 MT (-4,%), leaving 13.76 MT for domestic sales (-10%.)."

Next April, the WCO will release the 2025 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.

Source: World Citrus Organisation