Pisco Tequila Pisco, good combo for a great hangover, don't you think?
Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego, writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.
As you might already know I am an avid information seeker…
Yes!! I like knowing things…
But most of all, I DON’T LIKE NOT KNOWING!
Mexico’s blueberry industry is a “blind spot” for me
I talked to some people living and working in Mexico’s blueberry industry, and they’ve told me…
….“I know about my production and maybe 1 or 2 other guys and that's it.”
But I realize I might not be alone in this quest for OFFICIAL data…
For instance….
This week I read an article from Blueberry Consulting that said…
“According to the USDA's voluntary annual blueberry report, Mexico's blueberry production in 2024 was forecast at 81.000 tons, an 8% increase from 2023…”
So I went and looked for more info on Agronometrics…
In any case, it seems that getting information out of Mexico is not as easy as it seems.
Why?
As you can see the USDA informs about the production in a voluntary report and Agronometrics finds it difficult to have updated information from Mexico so they deconstructed the curve from its partner's information and not directly from Mexico's data.
But let’s work with what we have….
As you can see both Mexico and Peru had a lower production during 2023 than in 2022, but although Peru will probably surpass its production in 2024, maybe 8% won’t do it for Mexico.
We know that the US is the primary market for Peru, Mexico, Chile , Argentina, and other exporting countries, as we can see in this chart.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
So now that the Peruvian curve is coming down…
Ok, let me interrupt myself for a second here…
Yes, Peru is coming down but is parachuting from the stratosphere so it might take a while for those volumes to REALLY go down.
Back to me!!
….we are waiting for both the Chilean curve and the Mexican curve to start picking up speed.
So it would be very interesting what will happen in the next few weeks.
Mind you, those prices are not looking that great either…
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
How will the US market deal with all that volume…?
… and will Chile and Mexico start moving fruit to other countries where Peru is not so heavily invested?
Which role will Europe play in this scenario?
Will this be part of a Let’s Talk About… Mexico??
Enough questions for today…
If you want answers and missed “Let’s Talk about…” Peru’s exporting curve, prices, and the different scenarios, don’t worry, You will be able to get it at a special price for subscribers SOON!
Have a Great Week!!!
And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe…
PS: Yes I know they don't live in the Industry they live in Mexico…
PS1: I also read this in the article...
“...growers have moved ahead in implementing a varietal replacement that not only contemplates genetics that are more prepared for water scarcity, but are also more productive in terms of yield and fruit quality.”
Can anyone tell me which varieties can produce more in an environment of water scarcity?
Because one thing is water "management", "sustainable usage" and another is "scarcity"
PS2: Yes today is Tuesday, not Monday in case you were asking…
and no I am not changing the publishing day.
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