In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of Mexico’s agriculture industry. Each week, the series examines a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic and visualizing the market factors driving change.

Water scarcity in Mexico has escalated into a national crisis, driven by long-term drought, climate change, and inadequate water management. This challenge is hitting the agricultural sector hard, particularly in Sonora and Sinaloa, where reservoirs stand at just 20-30% capacity. The scarcity has forced many farmers to reduce planting, leading to a 5% drop in U.S. imports of Mexican fruits and vegetables during the 2023-24 season.

The looming "Day Zero"—when water resources become irreversibly scarce—is bearing down on the nation. The crisis stems from a combination of unequal water access, pollution, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. With 76% of Mexico's water dedicated to agriculture, the sector's dependence on this dwindling resource underscores the urgency of action.

Adding to the strain is a labor shortage exacerbated by the relocation of factories from Asia to Mexico, which draws workers away from rural areas. This migration reduces the availability of agricultural laborers, a gap increasingly filled by Central American workers. Factories also compete with farms for limited water resources, intensifying the challenges faced by growers.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Despite these pressures, the produce supply chain is adapting. Distributors in Nogales, Arizona, and other warehouse hubs are expanding capacities through new facilities and upgrades. These efforts support both the flow of Mexican produce into the U.S. and U.S. exports to Mexico, such as apples. Private equity and foreign investment are fueling these expansions, highlighting the sector's resilience.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The Fresh Produce Association of the Americas (FPAA) is stepping up its representation, advocating for distributors across Arizona, Texas, and California. Texas, in particular, has seen rapid growth in Mexican produce shipments due to improved highway infrastructure and new growing regions.

The crisis has brought Mexico’s water management policies under scrutiny. According to CONAGUA, agricultural use dominates water consumption, leaving limited resources for public and industrial needs. Meanwhile, significant water loss occurs due to inefficient infrastructure, with up to 70% of treated water lost to leaks.

As growers navigate these challenges, there is a growing emphasis on sustainable and socially responsible practices. Addressing Mexico's water crisis requires coordinated efforts across governmental, agricultural, and industrial sectors. Investments in infrastructure, innovative technologies, and robust policies are crucial to safeguarding this vital resource for future generations.

The stakes extend beyond economic stability. Ensuring water access and agricultural resilience will shape the future of Mexico's communities, ecosystems, and overall sustainability.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.