In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we study the recent Peruvian blueberry supply uptick. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The Peruvian blueberry season has entered uncharted territory; export volumes are reaching heights we’ve never seen before. The question on everyone’s mind is: How long will this peak last, and can the global supply chain handle this surge?

Peru Fresh Blueberry Export Volume History | Cultivated Conventional 

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The latest data paints a striking picture of Peruvian blueberry exports, with volumes culminating at 24.9 k MT in week 42.  Export volumes have climbed dramatically and have reached levels that have the potential to shake destination markets. These figures raise critical concerns: Is the current infrastructure and supply chain robust enough to absorb this immense volume without significant disruptions? If the supply chain fails to keep pace with these volumes, it could result in substantial economic impacts.

One major concern is the threat of prices falling below profitable levels. When prices are driven down due to oversupply, growers and exporters might face financial losses. The market bifurcation that we’re observing, with some players holding strong and others unable to keep up, intensifies this issue. It’s a situation where quality and efficiency are paramount. The market seems to be bifurcating with lower-tier operators struggling, while leading operators are still able to command strong prices.

This is putting pressure on those who are unable to deliver top-quality fruit. This situation might quickly evolve into a scenario where, if you don’t have quality fruit, you simply won’t find a place for it in the market. For instance, regions like Chile have already experienced the pressures of this bifurcation.

What does this tell us? We are at a point where aggregated export numbers alone cannot capture the full picture. Instead, the real story lies in how individual players navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by this extraordinary season. 

As the industry grapples with these unprecedented volumes, staying flexible and focusing on quality will be crucial. The stakes are high, and the coming weeks will reveal whether the supply chain can handle the pressure or buckle under the strain.

The evolving scenario underscores the importance of strategic planning and collaboration. Only time will reveal if this massive export wave can be sustained profitably or if market adjustments will become necessary to stabilize the situation.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)