In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Chilean cherry season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Chile’s total cherry production is forecast to reach an all-time high of 124 million 5-kilogram boxes this season. The U.S. is set to receive a modest share of approximately five million boxes. This accounts for less than 5% of Chile's total exports, with China continuing to dominate the market, receiving over 90% of the total volume.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Chile has just hit the peak harvest of its cherry season, and shipments to international markets are significantly outpacing previous years. By week 49, over 166 million kilograms of cherries had already been exported worldwide, representing a remarkable 200% increase compared to the same period last year. 

The rapid growth of the Chilean cherry industry is underpinned by steady increases in planted area, which reached nearly 64,000 hectares in MY 2023/24 and is projected to grow by an additional 5.5% in MY 2024/25, according to the USDA. The Maule and O’Higgins regions are the leading production areas, owing to their optimal climatic conditions, including ample chill hours, irrigation resources, and frost-free springs.

For U.S. retailers, the projected five million boxes represent a significant increase compared to 2.7 million boxes last year and 3.5 million the year before. This anticipated growth has been met with proactive planning and aggressive promotional strategies.

Retailers have positioned cherries prominently in holiday ads. The logistics have shifted this year, with cherries arriving by ocean freight earlier in the season rather than being flown in last-minute, allowing for reduced costs and better preparation. Prices in week 50 hovered at $9.40/kg.

Despite the strong start, the season is not without potential hurdles. A pending U.S. port strike, expected to begin on January 15, could disrupt container shipments. However, the timing of bulk vessel shipments—a key transport method during the peak season—is expected to mitigate these risks. Exporters are actively prioritizing space on bulk charters to avoid interruptions and ensure a steady supply.

Looking ahead, promotional pricing is expected to drop after the New Year. Retailers are prepared to maintain aggressive advertising through January to coincide with peak shipping periods, ensuring consistent movement of the increased volume.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

While the U.S. market is poised for a notable increase in Chilean cherry imports, the Chinese market remains the primary driver of growth for the industry. Chilean cherries are particularly prized for their quality, long post-harvest resilience, and ability to meet the high standards of discerning Chinese consumers. The popularity of varieties like Santina underscores Chile’s strategic focus on long-distance export markets.

With its consistent growth in production, strategic market diversification, and robust logistical planning, the Chilean cherry industry is poised to continue setting new benchmarks in the years ahead. This season’s record-breaking shipment to the U.S. is just one chapter in a broader story of global demand and innovation.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.