The National Retail Federation's Supply Chain and Customs Policy Vice President Jonathan Gold spoke about the 2025 outlook on retail and retailers, calling it a "promising year."

In a webinar on the 2025 Trans-Pacific shipping outlook, Gold laid the groundwork from the retail perspective. He said 2024 ended on a high note "with a very strong holiday season, and we saw continued growth year-over-year going into last year," as well as strong record sales within the retail industry.

Because of this, he explained that 2025 looks promising, thanks to the economy remaining strong. However, he cautioned that the industry must keep an eye on inflation concerns, weaker consumer confidence, and policy uncertainty related to trade.

"In 2024, imports were up 15.2% over 2023, and we saw strong West Coast growth," Gold said. "A lot of that was because of the ongoing concerns of labor action on the East Coast and Gulf Coast with their labor negotiations. This year, however, we expect a bit of a dip."

He also emphasized the importance of monitoring tariff threats. "We continue to hear from the president and his advisors about the variety of reasons behind the tariffs," he explained. "First and foremost, they are a negotiating tool the United States can use to address trade disputes. They serve as leverage to encourage companies to move out of China and are a means to bring manufacturing back to the United States."

However, Gold added that while tariffs can be an effective bargaining tool, they may hurt consumers. " Many economists say that the tariffs could have a $2,500 to $7,600 impact on American families' costs," he said. "Part of the challenge is that with the tariffs, retailers are not going to be able to absorb all the increases, and some of the costs will pass to consumers. Small and medium-sized retailers, in particular, will be hit hard."

"Also, there's the potential impact of retaliation on U.S. exports, which could be pretty significant," he added.

Gold advised companies to remain cautious and avoid taking premature action until a firm announcement is made by the administration. He expressed hope that ongoing conversations between all governments involved would help avoid tariffs in the future.