In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we analyze fresh produce price trends in 2024. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

According to the USDA, in 2024, food-at-home prices saw a modest increase of 1.2%, significantly lower than the 5.0% rise in 2023 and below the 20-year historical average of 2.7%. Among the food categories, fresh fruits and vegetables experienced some of the slowest price increases, reflecting an overall trend of stabilization in food costs.

Fresh vegetable prices increased by 1.0%in 2024, a rate well below previous years' inflation levels. This moderation in price growth can be attributed to the easing of supply chain disruptions and lower costs of agricultural inputs, such as energy and fertilizers. With more predictable supply chains and reduced logistical challenges, consumers were able to purchase fresh vegetables at relatively stable prices compared to the inflationary peaks of recent years.

Fresh fruit prices saw an even smaller increase of 0.4%, making them one of the most stable food categories in 2024. This minor growth was supported by improved agricultural yields and a more balanced market demand. The decline in inflationary pressures and a return to more normalized production conditions played a key role in keeping fresh fruit prices from rising significantly. Several factors contributed to the relatively stable pricing of fresh produce in 2024.

The easing of transportation bottlenecks and increased efficiency in food distribution helped maintain a steady supply of fresh fruits and vegetables. Additionally, the decline in energy prices and unprocessed agricultural commodity costs prevented sharp price hikes in fresh produce. Economic adjustments also played a key role, as labor market pressures eased, making production and harvesting processes more cost-effective and reducing the need for drastic price adjustments.

Looking Ahead to 2025 The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) projects that food-at-home prices will rise by 1.3% in 2025, with a broad prediction range of -2.7 to 5.5%. While price movements for fresh fruits and vegetables remain uncertain, the continued stability in production costs and market conditions suggests that fresh produce may continue to experience modest price adjustments rather than steep inflation.

Consumers can take comfort in the fact that, despite past economic challenges, fresh fruits and vegetables remain among the most stable food categories in terms of pricing. This trend is a positive sign for households aiming to maintain a healthy diet without significant financial strain.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)