In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at the USDA's agricultural projections through 2034. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The United States continues to be a major importer of agricultural products, with horticultural goods making up nearly half of all agricultural imports. Projections from the USDA, published in the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034 report, indicate that this category will grow at an average annual rate of 4.1 percent, increasing from $105.6 billion in 2025 to $151.5 billion in 2034.

A significant portion of this growth is driven by fresh fruit and vegetable imports, which were valued at $32.4 billion in 2024 and are expected to expand by 4.2 percent annually over the next decade. This increase is attributed to slowing domestic production and the growing competitiveness of imports, particularly from Mexico, Chile, and Peru. Key imported fruits include avocados, berries, and citrus, which continue to meet rising consumer demand in the U.S. market. As agricultural imports rise, the overall U.S. agricultural import market is forecast to reach a record $215.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a 4.5 percent increase from 2024.

Looking further ahead, agricultural imports are projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, reaching $277.9 billion by 2034. Domestic fruit, tree nut, and vegetable production remains a crucial part of the agricultural sector. The combined farm value of these products is projected to increase from $56.5 billion in 2023 to $68.8 billion by 2034. Within this category, fruit production—both citrus and noncitrus—is expected to represent 37 percent of the total value by 2034.

Overall, U.S. fruit and tree nut production is forecast to remain stable at 50 billion pounds annually, with the sector's total value growing from $28.8 billion in 2023 to $35.5 billion in 2034. Certain crops, such as grapes, strawberries, and apples, are projected to see slight production increases, while stone fruits, including peaches, plums, apricots, and nectarines, may experience a gradual decline. The value of noncitrus fruit production is expected to rise by 23 percent, reaching $22.1 billion by 2034. While domestic production remains strong, imports will continue to supplement supply and offer consumers a greater variety of agricultural products year-round.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry. You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.