In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at the projections for Mexican mango season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

According to the National Mango Board’s weekly crop report, the Mexican mango season began the second week of January and will run until the last week of October with a projection (up to week 18) of approximately 29.2 million boxes. Volume shipped from Mexico in week 9 was approximately 1,391,039 boxes for a total of 4,491,792 boxes for the season. During the same week in 2024, volume shipped from Mexico was 1,616,808 boxes for a total of 5,418,264 boxes.

Although the 2025 Mexican mango crop got off to a slower start, industry insiders remain optimistic about a strong season overall. According to Chris Ciruli, partner in Ciruli Bros. LLC in AZ, the modest early volume does not indicate a short crop.

“I think it’s the exact opposite of that,” he says. “Cold weather and some light rain, which is virtually unheard of in the Mexican growing areas in February, have pushed the season off to a slow start. But I look at the crop situation as being very, very good going forward.” Ciruli expects picking to increase significantly by mid-March, with mangos growing larger than average due to ample rainfall.

Despite the initial slowdown, early shipments have shown excellent eating quality. Early Ataulfo mangos from Oaxaca have been predominantly larger in size, but as Chiapas and Michoacan ramp up, more smaller-sized fruit will be available.

“Mexico has the longest growing season, and production spans multiple varieties due to its diverse climatic conditions,” says Keith Barnard, senior vice president of global sourcing at Mission Produce. By midseason (May or June), fruit sizes should increase, and heavier promotions are expected. Overall, 2025’s early-season lull should give way to stronger volumes, larger fruit, and robust promotional prospects as spring advances. “Ripe mangoes from Mexico have great potential to drive sales in the U.S. market,” says Barnard.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry. You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.