The arrival of winter and low temperatures have meant production of Brazilian Formosa papayas will likely be lower in July, according to a recent report published by São Paulo University’s Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA).

The report said that due to the weather, which led to slower fruit ripening, growers in the state of Espírito Santo and the north of Minas Gerais are in an "interval period" between semesters.

CEPEA said demand would be firm despite school vacations in the country, and could even increase for the Formosa variety.

Formosa production was low in the states of Bahía and Espírito Santo in May and especially in June, but prices still didn't rise due to the wide availability of fruit from northern Minas Gerais.

The document showed there had been a greater offering of Formosa papayas in general since the start of 2014, leading to lower prices year-on-year. This initially greater supply was due to warmer weather at the start of the year, which accelerated ripening.

This however is not the only obstacle growers have faced this year, with many Formosa growers dealing with seed shortages since early 2013. The report added producers have taken more care though with the crop, and this has raised productivity.

The average price for northern Minas Gerais Formosas was BRL0.52 (US$0.23) per kilogram (2.2 pounds) during the first half of 2014, representing a fall of 13% year-on-year. The situation has been different for the 'Hawaii' variety, whose prices have continued to rise in July.

In June, Hawaii prices increased across all Brazilian regions due to slower ripening. In Espírito Santo for example, category 12-18 Hawaiis were traded at an average price of BRL0.80 (US$0.36) per kilogram, representing a 53% spike month-on-month.

The report highlighted exports have gone well so far this year with 14,000 metric tons (MT) shipped between January and May - an 18% rise on the same period in 2013, according to the Foreign Trade Secretariat of Brazil (Secex). Average returns were even greater than the volume increase, with the export value increasing 19% year-on-year to reach US$20.5 million.

Even though June was favorable for Brazilian papaya exports, industry players have said the pace of shipments could decline in July due to the start of the summer fruit season in the Northern Hemisphere which heightens competition.

The report concluded the amount of Brazilian fruit would be lower in the second half, so prices in the domestic market should remain attractive for growers.

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