Although the South American produce industry has been citing El Niño as the reason behind some unusual weather patterns over the last year, an Australian scientist says a 'significant' one is now on its way. 

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology yesterday said thresholds had been reached in the tropical Pacific for the first time since March 2010.

The organization added the weather phenomenon that could generate adverse weather such as flooding and droughts was now in its opening stages.

The phenomenon is generated from variations in water temperature around the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

"This is a proper El Nino effect, it's not a weak one," manager of climate monitoring and prediction at the Bureau of Meteorology, David Jones, told reporters, according to the BBC.

"You know, there's always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we'd suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event."

Scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in March El Niño had arrived, but they predicted it would stay weak and have little influence on weather and climate.

Bureau of Meteorology assistant director for climate information services, Neil Plummer, said in a release El Niño was often associated with below average rainfall across eastern Australia in the second half of the year, and warmer than average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country.

"The onset of El Niño in Australia in 2015 is a little earlier than usual. Typically El Niño events commence between June and November," Plummer said.

"Prolonged El Niño-like conditions have meant that some areas are more vulnerable to the impact of warmer temperatures and drier conditions.

"The failed northern wet season in 2012–13, compounded by poor wet seasons in 2013-14 and 2014-15, have contributed to drought in parts of inland Queensland and northern New South Wales."

According to the Bureau, while El Niño increases the risk of drought, it does not guarantee it, claiming of the 26 El Niño events in 1900, 17 had resulted in widespread drought.

Photo: El Niño during 1997-98, via Wikimedia Creative Commons

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