California's Navel orange growers have reported expectations for larger fruit sizes this upcoming season as they gear up for harvests in early October.

The California Agricultural Statistics Service (CASS) has forecast a crop of 86 million 40-pound cartons in 2015-16, of which 83 million cartons will come from three-county Central Valley region that makes up District 1.

For the district, this would represent growth of 8.5% year-on-year.

The forecast is determined by a survey of conventional, organic and specialty Navel varieties, based on random sampling of the number of fruit per tree, fruit size and historical information. The estimate is calculated on 2,000 fewer acres than last year.

Industry body California Citrus Mutual (CCM) highlighted the survey found the fruit count per tree in District 1 was 412, up 19% year-on-year.

"Growers, packinghouse fieldmen, and shippers that CCM spoke with prior to today's release generally believed that the crop was at least the same as last year and probably bigger than last year," CCM said in a release late last week.

"Fruit size was reported to be larger and fruit set, especially on late varieties, is better in most groves.

"The improved fruit size is attributed to timely rainfall and good growing conditions following petal fall last spring. Early rains this fall could result in additional growth that would equate to more cartons."

CCM said the external quality was very good and extended periods of high temperatures have increased brix, so flavor was expected to be 'excellent'.

"The industry response to the today's report is that the estimate is a reasonable starting point," the group said.

"The big variable will be the acreage number. Thousands of acres have been removed during the current drought. The two thousand acre reduction used by CASS is probably conservative, in which case the crop will come in below this estimate."

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