El Niño's effects on northern Peruvian grapes may only extend to the latest varieties, says a Capespan exec who is also taking a cautious approach to the Chilean campaign.

Capespan North America CEO Mark Greenberg

Capespan North America CEO Mark Greenberg tells www.freshfruitportal.com he was "pretty worked up" in August when everyone was talking about the weather phenomenon's threat, but so far his fears have been "unrequited".

"So will El Niño hit? Probably. Will it affect the seedless table grapes? Most people are getting to the end of their seedless table grapes right now and are probably left with Red Globes on the vine," he says, referring specifically to the country's north where the company sources most of its Peruvian fruit.

"Most people are expecting El Niño to hit in that area now in late December or January.

"Our first arrival of seedless was last week in Montreal. We have a Philadelphia arrival coming in this week," he says, adding the varieties were made up of Sugraone and Crimson as well as some Thompsons."

While Greenberg supposes Red Globes would be the most affected variety if El Niño hits, given its later season nature and its greater varietal share in the Peruvian industry, he emphasizes the country's climate conditions mean growers can be more flexible with when they harvest.

He says the Peruvian fruit is entering a market where there are still Californian grapes on the shelves, but in lower quantities than normal.

"We are featuring our Peruvian table grapes in three specific retail programs; principally in one, and a small presence in two others, and a volume of course for the spot market.

"Certainly California's season is ending earlier and with we think weaker fruit than they usually finish with.

"They're going to continue to have fruit in the market right through to December, but it won't be the same quality and condition that we normally see."

Chile, "it doesn't have to be a bad season"

After recently touring Chile in a visit that coincided with the Produce Marketing Association (PMA) Fruittrade Latin America trade fair, Greenberg looks at the country's situation from two sides - there is more water which is positive, but the weather has been a bit odd.

"I think everyone is happy about the fact that water resources appear to be at least more stable and in fact, better prospects going forward – good snow in the mountains, certainly enhanced snowpack in the Andes," he says.

"We saw reservoirs where there’d been no water last year not full, but certainly up 10-20%.

"The takeaway I got was a relatively warm winter with a peculiarly cool and damp spring is likely to have an impact on both timing – we think the crop is generally going to be 10-14 days later than last year according to our growers."

He says many of Capespan North America's partner growers have reported lighter crops on the vines, lighter bunches and fewer bunches in some areas.

"And with the prospect of an El Niño growing season which will suggest a more damp Chilean summer than usual, it’s hard not to approach this season with a certain degree of concern and caution.

"Growers are going to have to be cautious about how they treat the fruit, and people like us who sell the fruit are going to have to be cautious and realistic in terms of how we manage the fruit with our customers.

"We’re not going to sit on inventories here and we should not assume the fruit is going to be of good holding quality. We’re going to need to move fruit quickly so that our customers are satisfied with what we give them."

He says the company will be very reluctant to promote Chilean grapes until mid-January.

"I think the market is going to face high prices because of the extraordinary expectations that people have for early fruit prices. There's not going to be that much fruit in the market.

Greenberg also believes fixed programs will be the beneficiaries of the situation as the fruit is programmed.

"So in an ideal world, and of course the fruit business isn't always an ideal world, we’re moving that fruit into the programs in the sequence in which it arrives and we should not be holding that fruit for very long at all.

"It doesn't have to be a bad season. It doesn't have to be a bad season at all as long as everyone’s expectations are reasonable, and the information we’re getting out of Chile is accurate so we know how to stage the promotions, and make sure the movement is consistent with arrival."

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