By avocado expert and Green Earth Produce business development manager Avi Crane

The final figures for 2015 are yet to be published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), but it is clear that close to 2.2 billion pounds of fresh avocados were sold in the USA market last year. This is a 17.8% increase from the prior year total.

Including consumption in Canada, the figure for 2015 is close to 2.5 billion pounds, with more than 80% coming from the orchards of Michoacán and Jalisco, Mexico. Volume is up almost 100% from 2011.

During this volume surge, avocado price ranges have remained stable. In this decade, the avocado industry has shepherded the volume increase in a relatively orderly manner. The severe avocado market crashes of the '80s and '90s are ancient history. In 1993, a bumper avocado crop in California of half a billion pounds resulted in FOB (freight on board) prices that were below production costs.

Can avocado consumption in North America continue to expand in 2016? Can 300 million pounds be added to avocado consumption in 2016?  The answer to both questions is yes.

I project that in 2016 Hass avocado consumption will increase by just under 14% and come close to or exceed 2.5 billion pounds- over 62,000 truckloads. I also consider this a conservative figure – consumption could exceed this level without major impact on the FOB prices.

Undoubtedly, the long awaited (and awfully overdue) decision by the USDA to include the State of Jalisco to the Hass Avocado PPQ (process performance qualification protocol will propel the consumption level even higher.

Since the days of Ralph Pinkerton, the avocado industry has always done exceptional work with the retail and foodservice sectors of the producesector. The steady rise in consumption and the relatively stable market during this period is due, in a great part, to the effectiveness of Avocados of Mexico and the other industry promotional organizations in working with the trade and identifying their needs.

In 2016, the avocado industry levy will accumulate over US$62 million for promotional efforts. This figure does not include the levy by the Mexican industry which will significantly increase the total industry levy. I plan to devote a future Hass Horn discussing the development, implementation and current impact of the USDA "Hass Avocado Board".

The avocado industry faces many challenges, as does the whole produce industry.  Despite this, our industry dynamics have and will facilitate a cooperative commerce environment for producers, marketers and the trade.

Avi Crane is a former executive at Calavo Growers, Inc. and at the California Avocado Commission. Crane also established and managed the Chiquita Avocado Program. He began his career in the avocado industry as a producer.

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