Following a period of heavy Mexican avocado imports to the U.S. in the lead up to Cinco de Mayo, California-based Mission Produce is expecting lower and more consistent volumes during the summer months.

The company's vice president of marketing, Robb Bertels, said Mexico is now moving toward the end of its crop cycle, which typically runs from July through June.

"We recently came off of a huge push for Cinco de Mayo in the US where Mexico exported close to 50 million pounds per week during the month of April," he said.

"Into May and June, we should experience some declines in volume as the crop winds down--with 30-35 million pounds per week."

He said Mexico has having a bigger crop year this cycle than the previous cycle, projecting about 1.9 billion pounds of the fruit to be exported to the U.S. during 2018, compared to about 1.7 billion during 2017.

"We anticipate consistent, but lower volume from Mexico during the summer months, which is consistent with past years," he said.

The domestic U.S. avocado deal has been running "smoothly" this year, he said, with California experiencing a "strong and stable" campaign so far.

He added that pricing has been relatively stable, giving consumers a consistent experience without the sharp price fluctuations seen in recent years.

Bertels also noted California's crop is expected to be about 350 million pounds, up from around 200 million pounds last year. 

"California is currently hitting its stride in terms of production, and we expect weeks to be in the 13-15 million pound range through July, before declining slightly into August," he said.

"This matches up well with the overall volume declines we expect during that period from Mexico."

Another significant factor coming into play during the summer months is imports from Peru, which has been ramping up production over recent years.

"We expect about 160-170 million pounds of fruit from Peru during the late-May to late-September time period. Arrivals are starting now, primarily on the East coast of the US," he said.

"Combining California, Peru and Mexico, we expect that the market will be consistently supplied with good-quality fruit during the summer.

"Overall volume might tip the scales at over 50 million pounds per week at times, but consumer demand continues to be strong, and we expect supply and demand to remain in relative balance."

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