Fresh table grape production for 2020-21 is expected to be nearly unchanged at 25.7 million metric tons (MT) as gains in China offset weather-induced losses in the EU, according to a USDA report.

Steady supplies and flat demand are expected to result in nearly unchanged exports.

Production in China is forecast to see a slight gain of 400,000 MT to come to a total of 11  million MT, reflecting continued enhancements in crop management techniques.

As higher volumes and imported fruit quality further strengthen shipments to Asian markets, exports are projected up by 58,000MT to 420,000MT.

Conservative purchases by importers due to Covid-19 constraints are expected to pressure imports down by 19,000MT to 220,000MT, with domestic supplies replacing imports.

Turkey’s production is anticipated to dip slightly to 2 million MT due to summer hail damage that lowered yields as well as quality.

Exports are also expected a marginal reduction to 200,000MT with reduced shipments to Middle Eastern markets offsetting deliveries to top markets such as Russia and Ukraine.

Even though excellent grape quality is expected from the EU, production is projected to fall 170,000MT to 1.4 million MT as Italy suffered from severe weather.

EU exports are predicted to be a record low of 75,000MT as lower supplies contribute to a seventh straight year of diminishing trade. 

In comparison, production in the U.S. is forecast to increase by over 100,000 tons to 1 million MT. 

Exports are expected to slip to 305,000MT as a result of lower demand from Mexico, while imports are projected to decrease to 650,000MT due to lower output in Mexico following last year’s bumper crop.

Production in Peru is expected to see another year of gains, rising 12,000MT to total of 665,000MT due to favorable growing conditions and as new planting continues to come into production. 

In line with production, exports are forecast up by 15,000 MT to total of 415,000 MT as higher supplies boost shipments to top markets.

Chile production is predicted to be unchanged at 785,000 MT, stopping a nearly unchecked decline since 2012-13. 

Steady supplies are expected to sustain exports near last year’s level in Chile.

South Africa production is anticipated up by 8,000 MT to total 330,000MT due to sufficient water supplies, new orchards and varieties coming into production.

Exports are expected to follow production, rising 7,000MT to 305,000MT as higher output boosts shipments to the EU.

The USDA report explained that U.S. and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year, while all other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year.

Southern Hemisphere producer countries of Argentina, Chile, Peru, and South Africa are on an October-September marketing year, and Brazil is on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. Some countries may include raisin-type and/or table-type grapes.