In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas analyzes the state of the Mexican avocado market. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

As reported by Bloomberg, Avocado prices from the Mexican state of Michoacán have spiked by 81% this year and reached $38 for a 20-pound box. Mexico's avocado production is expected to be 8% lower than it was over the previous year, according to a USDA report.

The rise in avocado prices comes amid concerns about food inflation, which has been aggravated due to supply chain constraints. In its first-quarter results announcement on March 10, the largest US distributor of avocados, Mission Produce saw a 50% increase in average per-unit avocado sales prices due to limited supplies out of Mexico and inflationary pressures.

As depicted below, prices in week 13 stood at around $57.08 per package, a 32 percent hike compared to week 13 of the previous year. 

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Michoacán has been the sole avocado exporting state to the U.S. market so far. Total exports of around 17 K tonnes were recorded in week 13, a 32 percent plunge compared to last year. In December 2021, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) authorized Jalisco to export Haas avocados to the U.S.

Recently, Federal authorities, in collaboration with local growers, launched an operational work plan which delineates the responsibilities of each link in the chain, in order to facilitate Jalisco avocado producers and packers to successfully initiate exports.

“Avocado exports from the state of Jalisco in western Mexico to the US represents a great opportunity to Mexico as the main supplier of the best fruit to the world,” says the head of the Secretary of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader) of Mexico, Víctor Manuel Villalobos.

Almost 3,000 Jalisco producers are set to start exports soon. As reported by José Serefino Cortez Gonzáles, former president of the Association of Avocado Producers and Exporters of Jalisco, the state currently has a cumulative area of around 27,000 hectares, of which 12,000 are ready to begin exports to the United States. 

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

There has been an exponential growth in avocado exports from Mexico over the years. In 1994, 6000 avocados were sold to the United States while in 2021, 1.08 million tons were exported from Michoacán.

Domestic production of avocados has almost tripled during the last 25 years. Inflation, however, is surging; according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US food prices edged 1% higher on-month and 7.9% on-year in February. While the avocados expected from Jalisco are likely to stabilize prices going forward, the industry is still recuperating from the blow caused by the shutdown in February. Additionally, spikes in inflation and supply chain disruptions are continuing to add to problems.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.