In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of apple season in the US. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Across Washington state, apple industry leaders are predicting a smaller-than-average crop this year due in part to an unusually frigid and stormy spring. 

At the Washington Apple Commission meeting on May 26, growers shared crop predictions, with most estimates ranging from 105 million to 115 million 40-pound boxes, significantly smaller than the five-year average of 128.3 million boxes.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Growers based their estimates on how apple trees bloomed this spring, which many said was “spotty,” in some cases with entire orchard blocks not blooming. 

Although the short crop was largely attributed to this spring’s winds, cold weather and wetness — which damaged blossoms and limited pollination — some growers said they believe the orchards may also be experiencing long-term effects from 2021’s heat wave.

Cold, rainy, windy weather keeps bees in the hive and out of the orchards, according to WSU Grant-Adams County Extension experts. 

“Growers who lost buds or blossoms to the cold and snow lose the opportunity to make profit, but should be insured for those losses,” says Washington State Tree Fruit director, Jon DeVaney. “A smaller crop has the potential to support higher prices for those growers who are less impacted,” he adds.

On the other hand of the spectrum, Michigan witnessed a slow warmup in spring and great pollination weather. According to projections by Michigan State University, conditions during August and September will also affect harvest dates. 

If hot, stressful weather occurs in August or September, apple maturity will be advanced, especially in early to mid-ripening cultivars. Overall, 2022 predicted harvest dates for most of the state are near average, or slightly earlier than average.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. 

If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.