Weather challenges in the region and competitors’ reduced crop sizes to strengthen demand for Peruvian grapes. Vanguard forecasts Peru to export 70-72 million boxes in the 2022-23 season, compared to 65M last year.

High temperatures and forecasted rain in California pose a direct threat for the remaining crop in this region, Vanguard said. On the other hand, Chilean harvests are looking at a drop of 10-20 million boxes compared to the previous season, it added.

“All this adds up to strong demand for Peruvian grapes out of the gate, and likely to stay that way well into our season”, shared the president of Vanguard Direct LLC, Dirk Winkelmann.

As for varieties, customer demand for Greens will be met with an increased volume. However, Red Globes (red seeded) are expected to be down by 10-15%. 

Logistics crisis

As this year’s harvest approaches, Vanguard says that most logistical concerns have been resolved. Shipping costs and port issues are seeing some relief with reductions in congestion and container release times. 

The Vanguard leader also explained that changing customer needs are another factor for the positive estimates.

“We are seeing retailers and customers, both in the USA as well the UK, contacting us for their  supply needs much earlier this season,” says Winkelmann. 

“Two leading global retailers have  already closed their contracts and are not relying on California to take them into late December or  early January”, the exec assured.

The first harvest is set to begin by early November 2022 in Peru’s Ica region.