In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Washington apple season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The annual apple harvest in Washington kicks off in August and wraps up by early November. More than 100 million boxes of apples, each weighing around 40 pounds, are harvested annually in Washington. The state ranks number one in apple production, accounting for 64 percent of the U.S. production this year, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Inclement weather conditions this season, however, took a toll on apple production in Washington. Heat waves experienced at the height of summer hampered bud development in certain apple varieties. Additionally, frigid weather in the spring led to poor pollination and a limited blossom-thinning window, which led to smaller fruit and lower volumes. The crop is estimated to be down 22 million cases this year compared to last year, from 122.3 million cases to 99.8 million. “It’s probably the smallest crop in eight years,” says Don Roper of Honeybear Marketing. 

According to Roper, Honeycrisp production is predicted to be down approximately 10.9 million cases compared to the total of 13.4 million last year, a reduction of roughly 18 percent. A significantly lower fruit size was recorded for Galas. According to the most recent projection, crop volume for Pink Lady would decline by 30%, from 7.4 million cases last year to 5.5 million this year. Granny Smith production is expected to be 12.7 million cases, a 26 percent reduction from last year’s volume of 17.1 million cases, while the hardiest crop this season was Cosmic Crisp. “Due to additional plantings, this year’s production is expected to be up nearly 50 percent, from 3.8 million cases last year to 5.5 million this year, ” says Roper, referring to the volumes for Cosmic Crisp. 

Harvest concluded abruptly at the end of October when a season-ending frost and snow were experienced. “It was a race to get the last of the crop off the trees and into the storage facilities,” says Roper.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

For virtually all apple types, FOB costs have risen, which has resulted in higher prices at the retail level. Prices are likely to be at least 10 to 20 percent higher this year compared to last year due to price inflation which is now rampant in the industry. Demand is projected to taper off as a consequence of rising pricing. Additionally, consumers are likely to substitute apples for other produce items. The Southern Hemisphere will play a crucial role in bridging the gap between spring and summer volumes. As a consequence, apples from Chile, New Zealand, and Argentina will be in high demand.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.