In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Valeria Concha reviews 2022 for avocados in the US market. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The year 2022 was marked by a strong and steady supply of avocados in the U.S. market, with prices reaching historically high levels during the first half of the year, however, as the season progressed and supplies from Peru and Mexico increased, prices decreased, reaching 2020 levels. 

While retail avocado prices were high during the first half of the year, consumer demand continued, said Jan DeLyser, vice president marketing for the California Avocado Commission, in July. This occurred even at a time when consumer dollars were being stretched thanks to inflation.

He also stated that both F.O.B. and retail avocado prices were up this year compared to last.The main factors influencing  pricing were cost increases due to inflation as well as tighter supplies. Although the supply of California avocado this year was slightly higher than last season, the harvest ended earlier than in previous seasons. It is worth mentioning that California has been facing drought and heat waves.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The year 2022 started with average prices in the U.S. market around $48 per package, during March they increased by $6 - $8 per package, however, in week 16 they reached values around $70 per package, decreasing to around $65 per pack between weeks 18 and 23, peaking at around $72 per pack in weeks 24 and 25.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Around week 22, Peruvian avocado volumes began to increase in the U.S. market. The Peruvian avocado season concluded following a record drop in prices. Higher volumes of fruit and logistical impediments were the primary culprits behind the decline. Spikes in freight rates and cancellation of routes led to delays in shipments, causing multiple shipments to be unloaded together at destination ports. According to the Peruvian Association of Hass Avocado Producers (ProHass), almost 10,000 young hectares of Hass avocado will enter production in the 2022-23 season, adding to the more mature growing areas.

However, the country will be making almost no additional plantings for growing. The development comes after changes in the agrarian promotion law and the elimination of tax incentives, according to the Peruvian newspaper, Gestion. Peru exported 613,947 tons of avocado between January and September 2022, according to Fresh Fruit. The export volume increased by 11% but its value decreased by 10%. 

Supplies of Mexican avocados have been strong, with great quality and seem to have good supplies to carry on through the winter and spring, said Calavo Growers Inc.’s Peter Shore. He added that currently, supplies are coming out of Michoacán but also Jalisco, a producing state that was finally approved for shipment to the U.S. by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA-APHIS) in mid-July.

“It’s a larger crop overall from Mexico. The growing regions there are also having an “on” year with great supplies and good sizing,” says Shore, noting that good supplies began in late August. Meanwhile, demand is also steady on avocados. “Demand is typically lighter for avocados in Q4 and then it does pick up for Christmas and New Year’s. It also increases throughout the first quarter for football events, highlighting the Super Bowl (February 12, 2023 ), and that continues through the second quarter of the year as well,” says Shore.

He notes that demand looks to be similar to last year at this time.  As long as supplies are plentiful, promotional prices will be available for the next few months. Prices have remained lower than last season. From week 38 through week 51, average prices for conventional avocados in the U.S. market have remained around $21 to $26 per package, showing an average decrease of 42% compared to the same period of the previous season.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

To learn more take a look at our most read cherry stories this year:

1. Agronometrics in Charts: Relief in sight for soaring Mexican avocado prices
2. Agronometrics in Charts: Hass avocados see firm prices in U.S. market
3. Agronometrics in Charts: Colombia swiftly ramping up avocado exports to the U.S.
4. Agronometrics in Charts: Dominican Republic’s Tropical Avocados Serving As Stopgaps
5. Agronometrics in Charts: Low temperatures impacting Hass avocado volumes out of Chile

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.