In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the  California strawberry industry. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

According to the Weekly Weather Crop Bulletin published by USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board, winter storms in California have resulted in substantial drought relief.

In fact, drought coverage in the 11- state Western region decreased from 74 to 48 percent between September 27, 2022, and March 14, 2023. Additionally, Western coverage of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) during the same period decreased from 19 to 2 percent. The storms, however, have caused significant disruption for strawberry producers.

According to the California Strawberry Commission, which represents all of the state's growers, around 20% of strawberry fields in the Monterey Bay region south of San Francisco have been flooded. Last year, about 40,000 acres of strawberries were planted in the state, according to the commission.

“We were supposed to be picking berries in two or three weeks,” says Soren Bjorn, president of the Americas for top berry distributor Driscoll’s Inc. “That’s clearly not going to happen.” Driscoll’s is bracing for a big chunk of crops there to be lost, said Bjorn, who estimates about $30,000 is spent to grow a single acre.

Large scale crop losses in the biggest US food producing state will contribute to supply shortages and grocery-store price bumps. The bulk of strawberries farmed in the United States are produced in California, with farms in different regions of the state harvesting the fruit at different times of the year. According to the commission, approximately one-third of the state's strawberry acreage is located in the Watsonville and Salinas regions.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Although it is uncertain how severely this year's harvests will be impacted, strawberry prices will almost certainly increase.

According to information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the producer price index for berries jumped 8.7% last year, on top of a 41% increase the year before. Prices for strawberries in week 11 were 27% higher compared to week 11 of 2022. 

“There’s going to be an impact on national supply,” said Nick Wishnatzki of Wish Farms, a fourth-generation year-round berry supplier to the Americas.

Wish Farms, whose crop portfolio is about 60% strawberries, has lost 5% of acreage so far and is now trying to assess damage from the latest storms.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

These circumstances have not only hampered the strawberry harvest, but have also impacted the commodity's distribution and export. Obstacles in the existing harvests might delay strawberry exports, a circumstance that other producing nations could leverage.

This is particularly true for Mexico, where the strawberry crop is set to kick off soon. Consumers shouldn't see a gap in availability right now, commission spokesman Jeff Cardinale said. As far as the underwater berries, it's too early to know how the market might be impacted, he added.

During the following weeks, it will be critical for fresh produce buyers to be able to satisfy their demand in full, assuming their growers were affected. For the affected farmers, it will be crucial to have the economic, physical, and human resources required for the swift transfer of their present crop and the speedy restoration of their businesses.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here. All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.