The farm value of U.S. fruit production is forecast to be $24 billion by 2032, according to a USDA report. 

The USDA released a report providing U.S. agriculture projections for 2023. The report covers agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income.

The report states, “The projections are based on specific assumptions, including a macroeconomic scenario, existing U.S. policy, and current international agreements.”

Additionally, the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 is assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. 

The report reviews a wide range of U.S. ag products, including animal products, wheat, soybean, and corn, as well as fruit, nut, and vegetable production. 

In 2021, the combined farm value of fruit, tree nut, and vegetables was $49 billion, this is projected to grow to $59 billion by 2032. Fruit is forecast to represent 41% of the total value, while tree nuts a 21% and all vegetable and pulse crops roughly 39%. 

In terms of volume, the report projections indicate that fruits, tree nuts, and vegetables are forecast to reach 172 billion pounds by 2032, a slight increase from 165 billion pounds in 2021. Of the projected volume, “fruit contributes 30 %of total output, tree nuts approximately 5%, while all vegetable and pulse crops roughly 70%.

Fruits & tree nuts

Even though total U.S. fruit and tree nut production is expected to reach nearly 52 billion pounds in 2023, citrus output in particular is projected to decrease from 11.2 billion pounds in 2022 to 9.8 billion pounds in 2032.

“Total citrus production levels are projected to decline through the decade largely due to further attrition of bearing acreage in Florida’s orange and grapefruit industries. 

“In California however, the top producing State of fresh market oranges, lemons, and tangerines, is projected to remain steady. The total value of citrus production in the United States is projected to remain steady because of higher prices due to smaller domestic supply,” indicates the report.  

Additionally, domestic and foreign tree nut demand is set to continue growing, with production volume projected to reach 9.2 billion pounds in 2032. 

The combined farm value of fruits and tree nuts is expected to grow to $36.4 billion by 2032.

“In 2021, grapes, strawberries, and apples represented 70 percent of noncitrus fruit farm value. The share of noncitrus fruit farm value for these commodities is expected to increase slightly over the projection period,” the report indicates. 

Projected volumes and values of fruits, nuts, and vegetables are displayed in the following table:

Global Growth Outlook

The report also looks into the global economic scenario, acknowledging that global GDP will likely decrease in the short term of the projection period and eventually recover as countries rebound from the covid-19 pandemic, inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine war which are projected to continue to disrupt markets around the world.

“Global real GDP growth is projected to average 2.8 percent annually during the period 2023–2032.”

Developing countries are projected to grow at a faster rate than developed countries, 4.1% annually vs an average of 1.6% respectively. Both projections have fallen below pre-pandemic projected GDP growth rates.

For example, during the projected period from 2023-32, the U.S. real GDP growth is projected at an annual average of 1.8 percent, however, in Latin America, growth is projected at 2.8 percent annually for the same period.