In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Mexican grape season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.
The Mexican table grape industry relies on a narrow, eight-week cultivation period, strategically wedged between the conclusion of Chile and Peru's growing seasons and the commencement of the United States' season. Despite ongoing harvesting activities in both Mexico and Coachella, California, their seasons encountered challenging circumstances at the beginning. A delayed harvest, coupled with delays in fruit maturity caused by cool temperatures and abundant rainfall, posed significant difficulties.
Similar to Mexico and Coachella, Central California is experiencing a delay of approximately 10-14 days in its harvest. According to Mike Asdoorian, an industry source, the crop is expected to be favorable this year, aligning with or slightly surpassing historical averages. Ample fruit availability for promotion is anticipated, with pricing slightly above historical averages due to cost considerations. Assuming favorable weather conditions, the grape season is expected to extend late into the year.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.During its annual summit on March 22 in Tubac, the Association of Sonora Table Grape Growers (AALPUM), projected a total of 21.7 million boxes for the 2023 season, with slightly over half consisting of green grapes. This forecast reflects a modest increase of 1.3 percent compared to the production of 21.4 million boxes in the previous year. Volumes this season culminated at 40.1 K tonnes, 91.3 percent higher than the peak volume recorded in 2022.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.“There are still a few million cases left and possibly more if the original projections were accurate,” says Mike Asdoorian, adding that the Mexican season is running longer largely due to that late start. “We’re looking at a transition the week of July 17th to Central California”.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.Pricing this season had been trending higher in comparison to 2022 until week 25. Week 27 saw pricing at $16.47 per package.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.The global demand for new table grape varieties and the phasing out of older ones has prompted Mexico to respond accordingly. However, Mexico's fragmented industry, apart from dominant regional growers collaborating with leading breeders, is struggling to cope with the substantial costs involved in updating varieties and maintaining competitiveness. In certain cases, the expenses can reach as high as $13 million USD annually in royalties for a single cultivar. Consequently, many growers find it financially impractical to adopt new varieties and are instead shifting focus to more profitable produce such as tomatoes, peppers, squash, asparagus, and watermelon.
Overall, 2023 played a pivotal role in assessing Mexico's ability to fulfill the production and innovation requirements of the table grape industry. Despite the unexpected challenges faced by some farmers in 2022, 2023 saw significant developments, including the stabilization of diesel costs and a notable decline in shipping expenses following the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These positive changes have provided a ray of hope for the industry as a whole, signaling potential improvements and opportunities moving forward.
In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.
All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.
You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.
