With the United States’ 2024 season closing in on fruit growers and exporters, the USDA released its September fruit outlook, forecasting mixed yield results as climate change continues to show across the country.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates that apple, apricot, grape pear and sweet cherry production will be up, while peach, tart cherry and cranberry yields are expected to decrease.

Good spring weather in the Pacific Northwest is the main driver for the 2023 uptick in apple and sweet cherry production, the report says. However, while spring rainfall helped drought conditions in California, an overall cool spring lowered yields there for some blooming crops.

Additionally, inadequate chill hours and spring freeze events affected production in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, leading to declines in peaches, tart cherries and cranberries in several states.

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“For the 2023-24 season (August to July), total U.S. apple production is forecast 1.5% up year-on-year. In Washington, the largest producing state, the crop is forecast to be 6.7 billion pounds, up 9% from last year,” USDA reports.

As for pears, the two largest producing states, Washington and Oregon, expect similar volumes to last year despite cold weather delaying the bloom season.

Regarding table grapes, Hurricane Hilary affected California vineyards during peak season. Growers report mildew damage from excess moisture, and also some wind damage that caused some premature fruit dropping.

With this, the state’s Table Grape Commission is projecting that about 35% of the unharvested grapes will be lost. Harvest was at only 30% when Hilary made landfall.

California is the primary table grape supplier for domestic consumption from August to November, thus lower yields could put pressure on prices until South American import volumes rise during the winter months.

Peach and cranberry production are projected down 13% and 5.4%, respectively, driven mostly by abnormally wet and cool weather.