A few weeks ago Peru started its table grape campaign for the 2023-2024 season. The big question is whether the country will maintain its place as the main exporters of table grapes in the world.
FreshFruitPortal.com spoke with the general manager of Provid, Alejandro Cabrera, who says that, just like other crops, table grapes have been affected by weather conditions. Cabrera emphatically indicates that production figures will be analyzed week by week since conditions can vary considerably.
Cabrera says the August-September figures will be updated in late October.
“We made a first projection in August with the fruit in the fields and then we made a readjustment to the first estimate in September which gave us a volume of almost 72 million boxes.
“It is a very similar number to the 2022-2023 season. We would be talking about practically zero growth, very similar to the 71.4 million boxes last season. I want to emphasize that this is the current situation, with information received by producers in August and September. It is a volatile season in which changes may occur due to weather conditions from one week to the other. This, of course, is due to the impact that El Niño may have.
“Therefore, we will be adjusting and revising it again in October, to maintain our commitment of updating the projection more times throughout the season than we usually do.
“One thing we know is that if there had been no El Niño phenomenon, Peru's volume would be much higher, so there is a drop compared to a regular season.
“That is why we have to be very careful and update the figures constantly and give out clear messages.
“Probably, as the season progresses, the number will adjust downwards.
August-September 2023 data versus 2022 shows a drop in Peru’s north and an increase in the south. The production areas are Piura, Lambayeque, and Truquillo in the north and in the south, Lima, Ica, and Arequipa.
“Peru in the last three seasons had grown at an average rate of 12.7%, however last season we grew 10%, two seasons ago we grew 13%, and three seasons ago we grew 15%,” Cabrera continues.
“If we compare by region, the northern zone of Peru has grown by an average of 20% in the last three seasons and the southern zone by only 11%. With these initial projections, we can anticipate that this will not occur this season since the volume from the north will be lower than in recent seasons.
“Traditional varieties currently account for 30% of Peru's table grapes, which are the ones that will suffer the most from the El Niño phenomenon with a very drastic drop due to the weather situation.”
On the other hand, Cabrera adds, 70% are licensed varieties, which, despite the fact that the weather affects all grape varieties, the impact on licensed varieties would not be the same as on traditional varieties. Some producers of traditional varieties expect drops ranging from 30% to 50%.
As of week 38, the main shipments are to the United States with 20%, in second place is Colombia with 15%, Mexico also has 15% of shipments, the Netherlands, with 13%, and other countries with 38%.
“I think we have to wait for the first estimates from Chile to see how the volume of each of the countries is coming. I would prefer to wait a little bit for Chile's estimate and our new season update.”
“It is important to keep in mind that in a market like the U.S., there is less fruit than in other years due to Hurricane Hilary. The California Table Grape Commission projected that the loss from the hurricane was approximately 25 million boxes and what was left in production was affected by up to 50%. So it is a big drop, with a lower availability of fruit and when there is less supply available and demand remains constant, there is usually a change in prices,” Cabrera says.
“This lower quantity of fruit may have an impact in terms of prices if we add to this that there will be less availability of fruit than was thought from Peru and without knowing how the Chilean season is coming; therefore the price variable could suffer with respect to what has been handled historically.”
