In July, the Peruvian Blueberry Producers Association (Proarándanos) announced a 9% drop in volumes, a figure that would soon grow fourfold. After roughly four years of exponential growth, El Niño’s rising temperatures took its toll on the country’s production, pushing growers to look into new genetics to manage the changing weather.

Inka’s Berries Executive President Carlos Gereda is well aware of this situation. He’s known in the industry as “the man who turned Peru into the top blueberry exporter in the world” and led the sector’s boom. All this, despite the fruit's recent introduction into the nation’s agricultural portfolio.

Gereda warns that recovering Peru’s growth level since the sector’s boom will be a hard task.

"Today, we project that we are going to close the year with 40% less fruit than in 2022, and with 50% less fruit than expected. In other words, this year we have had 40% less fruit, as well as 40% or 50% more in price than last year," he says.

To face the changing weather, which has brought warmer winters, Gereda says companies are looking into new varieties that have a better performance in warmer climates.

“Nowadays, the goal of the companies is to look for genetics that are 'tropicalized', meaning that they have no problem producing even in hot weather, always looking to obtain a good product, with good quality," he adds.

As for the upcoming 2024 season, Gereda says, projections are less-than ideal, but that varietal change is underway for most companies. This, he says, could help close the gap between the positive outcomes of the 2022 season versus  2023.

“Many companies are stretching their harvests to meet their kilogram budget targets, and that's obviously going to have an impact on volume," Gereda incates.

“We, as Inka's Berries, are going to launch to the market two new varieties resistant to climate change, which have had very good performance in hot climates, called Abril and Alessia. We already have 1,284 acres planted with these premium varieties aimed at the most demanding markets," he indicates.

Launch for these new products is projected to be this week, on Dec. 15.

2024: Lower volumes, lower prices

Reduced supply has pushed prices up during most of 2023. In 2022, the average price per approximately two pounds in week 46 was $4.78 and this year, during the same week, the price is set at $8.41 per two pounds. 

As for destination markets, the U.S. is paying on average, 56% more for Peruvian blueberries year-on-year in 2023. The current price per two pounds in the U.S. reached $7.93, compared to the $5.09 it was paying during the same period in the last campaign. 

According to Gereda, prices in 2024 will continue on the higher-than-average side, but the sector does expect a slight drop as volumes stabilize. He estimates prices around $6 per two pounds.