The South African industry is entering a critical period for winter crop production, a recent Agricultural Business Chamber (AgBiz) analysis said.

AgBiz works with producers to “ensure that agribusiness plays a constructive role in the country's economic growth,” its website states.

Farmers in the Western Cape will likely begin preparing soils for the 2024-25 winter crop season by the end of April and early May. Other major winter crop-producing provinces, such as Free State, Limpopo, and the Northern Cape will likely start around the end of May.

Winter crop production outside the Western Cape has sizable irrigation support. These regions should benefit from the relatively higher dam levels from early summer rainfall. 

While weather forecasts for the winter season remain uncertain, the sector hopes for a more neutral El Niño to bring average rainfall. This is expected to support the winter crop season.

Dry and hot weather during February and March hurt growing conditions for summer crops. AgBiz warns that this could also hurt crop pollination.

South Africa's Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) recently lowered its grains and oilseeds estimates due to the unfavorable weather. CEC now forecasts 2023-24 total grain and oilseeds production down 21% year-on-year.

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A rough year

South Africa’s agricultural sector endured multiple woes throughout 2023. The country’s energy crisis known as “load-shedding” has detrimental effects on agricultural production. It causes widespread blackouts, halting farming operations.

Later in the year, widespread animal diseases and logistics issues at ports, railway lines, and roads also took a toll on agriculture. Poor weather conditions have hurt projections across the country.

The 2023-24 winter crop season started on a positive note, and a “decent harvest” was expected. Sadly, floods in September heavily stalled yields.

Additionally, the launch of the Land Reform Agency, aimed at releasing government-owned land to “carefully selected beneficiaries with title deeds,” was delayed. President Cyril Ramaphosa has spoken about this Agency in several official addresses, however, it has yet to materialize.

The South African government has roughly 2.5 million hectares (about 6.1 million acres) under its Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS). According to AgBiz, these could be transferred to new entrant farmers and boost production in various value chains.