In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we address the upcoming Washington apple season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

As the apple-growing season approaches in Washington State, stakeholders are eagerly eyeing projections for the 2024 harvest. According to Jon DeVaney, President of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association, the outlook remains uncertain at this juncture.

Factors such as past crop fluctuations and labor shortages contribute to the complexity of forecasting. DeVaney notes that while it's early to make firm predictions, there are indications that the crop size could normalize compared to recent years.

“Typically a large crop is followed by a small crop so we might see a ‘return to normal’ crop size of about 125-130 million 40-pound box equivalents,” says Jennie Strong, International Marketing Specialist at the Washington Apple Commission. Todd Fryhover, President of the Washington Apple Commission, emphasizes the financial strains associated with larger crops and escalating labor costs. “Long-term, increased production is good. The challenge is staying in business as prices get aggressive and costs (labor and inputs) increase, ” Todd said.

The reliance on the H2A guest worker program underscores the industry's struggle to meet workforce demands amidst regulatory complexities. Additionally, the implementation of overtime pay requirements and concerns over water availability add layers of uncertainty. Despite these challenges, DeVaney highlights some positive industry trends.

“We’re seeing some downturn in prices right now. The industry has made substantial investments in newer orchards, including new varieties over the past few years,” he said. “So we’re seeing growth in both the organic apple production sector and in new varieties, including ones developed here in Washington, like the Cosmic Crisp. So we’re seeing high quality, good products that we are able to offer to consumers.” Moreover, the lifting of tariffs on exports to India represents a significant market opportunity for Washington apple growers. “The tariffs, imposed in 2019, added an additional 20% duty on the importation of US apples to India,” Strong said.

“This brought the total tariff to 70%, effectively shutting Washington apples out of the Indian market. Washington state apple growers saw their market share drop from 53% to less than 1%. With the tariff lifted, India is once again a viable export market for Washington apples. This was a huge win for the industry,” Strong added. 

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)