In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Pacific Northwest cherry season. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Last year's irregular weather patterns resulted in a cherry glut along the West Coast, with California and Washington experiencing an abundant harvest of the fruit simultaneously. 

The market found it difficult to absorb the surplus last season, resulting in unharvested fruit and falling prices. Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association noted that Pacific Northwest growers incurred substantial economic losses, leaving up to 35 percent of the crop unpicked.

Fortunately, optimal spring weather conditions this season have provided relief to growers, with the Northwest Cherry Growers (NWCG) pegging the 2024 crop at 20.9 million cartons, a 12 percent increase from the previous year. The anticipated increase in temperature is believed to improve the quality of the cherries by promoting sugar buildup and fruit cell growth.

The harvest is slated to begin earlier than usual this year, with full bloom occurring almost two weeks ahead of the 2023 schedule. However, concerns linger about frost damage in January affecting late-maturing varieties, potentially shortening the season.

Despite these challenges, the full cherry crops along the Pacific Coast promise a wealth of opportunities for both consumers and retailers.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Oregon’s sweet cherry industry had a banner year in 2020, with production worth nearly $134 million. 2021’s crop saw a 50% reduction in value compared to 2020, while the crop in 2022 saw an increase of only 5% compared to 2021, according to USDA data. In response to the crop losses suffered by cherry farmers last season, nine Oregon counties will be able to apply for federal loans and aid from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In March, The U.S. Department of Agriculture approved Oregon’s request for a natural disaster designation after the state’s cherry growers lost a substantial portion of their crop. The designation cited two weather events in July 2023 that caused crop loss: excessive rain in Hood River County and a drought and heat event in Wasco County. Under this designation, growers in the primarily impacted counties and neighboring counties are eligible to apply for emergency loans from the USDA Farm Service Agency through October of this year.

In November, Washington similarly requested a Secretarial Disaster Designation for the 2023 cherry harvest, and in February, a bipartisan group of the state’s senators and Congress members urged the USDA to approve it.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The forecast for British Columbia's cherry season presents significant challenges due to two cold snaps earlier this year. Although some trees managed to withstand the initial frost in January, a subsequent frost in April proved detrimental. Gagan Grewal of HG Produce in Abbotsford, B.C., notes that the impact is severe, with only a minimal amount of fruit, estimated at about 10-15 percent production, evident in the Okanagan Valley.

With the low production situation in B.C., it's reported that some growers have determined it's not even worth picking what's left on the trees this season.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Related  articles: Northwest Cherry industry anticipates a fruitful 2024 crop season