Following a 2022-23 season with lower yields on hail damage, the South African deciduous fruit sector is looking at a much more auspicious 2024. A recent USDA report projects a 7% increase in South Africa ’s apple production, while pear production is also forecasted to rise by 6% year-on-year.

South Africa’s agricultural sector endured multiple woes throughout 2023. The country’s energy crisis known as “load-shedding” had detrimental effects on agricultural production. It causes widespread blackouts which halt farming operations and delay production.

A depressed domestic market, limited processing capacity and cold storage facilities, increased input costs, and erratic electricity supply hindered apple production. 

However, yields are expected to stabilize at 25,300 metric tons (MT) in 2023-24. Limited new plantings and newer varieties are forecasted to enhance yields. Additionally, growers are investing in hail nets, reliable energy sources, and vertical integration to offset high input costs.

Related articles: Hailstorms cause major setbacks for South African apple and pear industry

Although some production regions in the Western Cape, such as Elgin, Grabouw, Vyeboom, and Villersdorp were impacted by floods in October 2023 which interrupted spray programs and pollination, yields were only slightly diminished. 

The Western Cape also experienced storms and winds in April 2024, but industry sources report that only a small percentage of the remaining fruit was damaged or blown off by the wind. The cold weather aided in color development of later red and pink apple varieties.

As for pears, production is projected upwards to 530,000 MT, a 6% boost from 2022-23. Growth is based on the cold and wet winter of 2023, with good chilling hours resulting in excellent fruit set and quality. 

Summer pears in the Ceres region are expected to be slightly affected by the early frost damage. Nevertheless, production from this region is expected to swell from last season’s. 

Blushed pears such as Cheeky, Celina, and Rosemarie are expected to boost overall production, while Abatel Fetel volumes are expected to drop slightly on earlier harvest and some frostbite.

Trade

The USDA forecasts that South African apple exports will rebound by 7% this season on increased production of exportable supply. Exports will be driven by growth in bi-red apples such as Gala, Cripps Red, and Big Bucks in the Pink Lady variety.

Pear exports are expected to rise by 16% to 280,000 MT on increased production, a weaker Rand exchange rate, and an easing of freight costs. The harvest season started about 7-10 days earlier than normal, with summer pear variety, Celina entering relatively empty markets due to lower-than-normal production in the northern hemisphere.