The latest USDA world market and trade report forecasts an increase in production on fresh apples, grapes, and pears with apples leading the list in both production and exports. 

2023/24 world apple production is forecast to rise more than 700,000 tons to 83.7 million and exports are projected up 10% to 6.0 million tons on higher shipments from the United States and Iran.

The United States apple production is expected to be the highest in 6 years, up 636,000 tons to 5.0 million, thanks to favorable weather in Washington and high production in Michigan. Exports are projected to rise 274,000 tons to 885,000, with increased shipments to Mexico, Taiwan, and India.

China and South Africa apple production is also expected to increase, although slightly. In China, despite declining planted area, production is estimated to grow 500,000 tons to 45.0 million as growers increase yields in existing orchards.

South Africa's production is expected to bounce back after last year's hail-damaged crops, with the harvest projected to increase by 75,000 tons to 1.2 million, due to favorable weather and expanded plantations.

Both EU and Chile's production are expected to contract slightly. Chile's decline is mostly due to a decline in planted area and the EU's contraction can be pinned to poor pollination across major producing countries.

Apple imports are also projected to rise slightly to 105,000 tons on steady demand.

India is slowly becoming the leading importer of fresh apples in the market, in the first nine months of the year fresh apple imports rose to 70% and are forecasted to reach a record 510,000 metric tons. 

The increase in apple consumption in the country can be pinned to the growth in population and higher demand for healthier foods and is leading to a slight increase in apple production although there is limited infrastructure to move lower-quality domestic apples from the north of the country to other regions of India. 

Much of India's imports are coming from Iran, which have nearly doubled so far this year, accounting for over a third of all imports in the country.

The growth in Iranian apples provide an affordable option in a "price-sensitive market as evidenced by the continued growth in market share," the report shows. 

Fresh pears

World pear production is projected to rise by more than 275,000 tons to 25.2 million, thanks to a greater supply from China.

China and South Africa are expected to see an increase in production, partially offset by lower shipments from the European Union and Turkey. 

China's production is expected to recover from last year's frost-damaged crops, with an anticipated increase of 600,000 tons to 19.6 million. The country's investments in new irrigation systems, fertilizer technologies, and new pear varieties are expected to lead to higher volumes and exports.

China remains the top exporter of pears accounting for nearly a third of global exports.

 Despite continued declines in fresh pear acreage, the United States' production is estimated to increase by 15,000 tons to 602,000 due to higher yields, and exports are projected to rise by 15 percent to 115,000 tons with increased shipments to Mexico and Canada.

Production is estimated to fall in the EU, Argentina and Chile. 

Fresh table grapes 

World table grape production is forecast to experience growth for a fifth year straight due to favorable weather conditions in India and China.

Exports are expected to fall by 200,000 tons to 3.5 million on reductions in Peru, the United States, and Turkey, although production for MY 2023/24 is forecast up more than 150,000 tons to 28.1 million. China will see an increase from 750,000 tons to 13.5 million, a record high after 5 consecutive years of growth.

Peru remains the top exporter and producer despite El Niño weather conditions, and South Arica's production is expected to rise to 370,000 thanks to favorable weather. Production in The United States, European Union and Chile is expected to contract mostly due to weather related losses and reduction in planted areas. 

The United States production is estimated to decline 19% to 655,000 tons, the smallest harvest in over 30 years due to Hurricane Hillary's impact in California.