In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we study global grape production trends. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

According to the USDA, the United States’ grape harvest has faced significant setbacks, with production anticipated to decrease by 19 percent to 655,000 tons, marking the smallest yield in over thirty years. This sharp decline was further exacerbated by Hurricane Hilary, which struck California during the peak of the harvest season.

The hurricane brought destructive winds and rain, severely affecting both the quantity and quality of the table grapes yet to be harvested. According to the May 2024 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2023 Summary report by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), this has led to a noticeable reduction in exports, down by 65,000 tons to 182,000 tons. Meanwhile, imports have spiked to 793,000 tons, fueled by increased shipments from Chile and Mexico to compensate for the domestic shortfall.

Meanwhile, Peru's grape production is experiencing a marginal rise, expected to reach 776,000 tons despite challenges posed by El Niño conditions which have curbed potential growth. However, export projections are less optimistic, with forecasts showing a decrease of nearly 100,000 tons to 525,000. This downturn is attributed to reduced exportable supplies, as adverse weather conditions such as heavy rainfall and high temperatures have deteriorated fruit quality.

Despite these challenges, Peru remains the leading exporter of grapes, although its production has decreased. Chile, another major player in the grape industry, is also seeing a downturn in its production. The country expects a reduction of 20,000 tons, bringing production down to 635,000 tons.

This decline is part of a long-term trend associated with a reduction in the area planted over the past decade. Export figures are predicted to drop by 16,000 tons to 480,000 due to the lower production, despite increased shipments to the United States. If these projections hold true, Chile will move from being the leading exporter to the third in just a span of two years.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)