As the global avocado industry recovers from a challenging year due to the El Niño phenomenon, we spoke with Zac Bard, chairman of the World Avocado Organization (WAO), about the current state of the global industry and what markets are becoming more attractive for growers. 

Bard said that the change in weather patterns last year affected nearly 90% of avocado-growing regions worldwide. However, he believes the avocado crop handled the weather better than other crops, showing more resilience.

"With Peru's season being done, we are fortunate that South Africa got a record crop this year, and other parts of Africa got a very good crop, so they will balance each other out," said Bard. 

He added that additional challenges, such as the closing of the Suez Canal due to armed conflict, also resulted in setbacks for the industry this year, 

"At WAO, we also have to fight against myths and negative publicity that arise regarding the impact of avocados on the environment," said Bard. "This has been a challenge for the last four years but we believe we have managed it well."

WAO started a "myth-busting campaign" to spread accurate information in the press and respond to accusations from organizations or media outlets that they label as "bad publicity."

Bard said the campaign has been successful, and they see less negative information about avocados being published. 

Consumption and new markets: Steady growth 

As we transition to La Niña, Bard believes places like Peru will have a "normal climate again, and production will be back to normal."

In Africa, this will bring rain which is good because they will be able to fill up their water reserves. This region in particular is experiencing normal to strong growth, according to Bard, and its geographical position offers opportunities to increase exports to Asia. 

"South Africa is growing as an origin, plantings in Zimbabwe are increasing, Mozambique and Tanzania along with Kenya are the big ones," said Bard. "We are also starting to see the first production out of Angola on the West Coast."

Additionally, South Africa and Kenya recently gained access to the Chinese markets, so Bard expects to see "African supply playing a bigger role in developing the Chinese market, especially in certain supply windows during the year."

Asia

According to WAO, the consistent increase in avocado consumption is expected to continue, with the Asian market seeing a new era of avocado consumers. 

"What we see now is that the U.S. is still the largest consumer market, with around 1.3 million metric tons, then Europe just under 900 thousand metric tons, followed by second-tier markets like Japan, China, and Canada," said Bard. 

He said that China is showing a surge in consumption after two or three slow years due to COVID-19. 

Additionally, South Korea is "coming of age" as an avocado consumer. 

Bard said that the "really exciting one is India because four years ago imports were less than 200-300 tons, and this figure has been doubling and tripling in the last couple of years."

WAO is involved in avocado promotions in India with the idea of educating consumers on how to include the fruit in Indian cuisine. Emphasizing the health benefits of avocados, WAO wants to include them in Indian diets. 

A few years ago, the main challenge for India was supply, but with new countries gaining access, Bard believes there should be good year-round supply. 

Overall, in Asia with over 60% of the world's population, there are still millions of people who have not tried avocados, since it has been a Western product for the last couple of decades. 

"We see the opportunity for a lot of people in Asia to start eating avocados, which is very exciting," he said. 

He expects that India, South Africa, and Eastern African countries will be the leading suppliers because geographically they are the closest. 

"The main supplier to India at the moment is Tanzania, which is complemented by Kenya, and now South Africa gained market access," he said. 

Latin America

Latin America is one of the leading producing regions in the world, with Mexico standing out as the largest grower and exporter. 

"Mexico carries on growing like it always has," he said.  

Bard believes that in the case of Chile, production seems stable with not much change anticipated. 

He highlighted what is happening in Colombia where there have been a lot of new plantings in the last couple of years. 

"We see Colombia's production growing quite steadily in the next couple of years," he said. "In Peru, there are a lot of new plantings which will come into production in the next couple of years so we will wait and see what happens there."

Europe

Bard said they also expect consumption in Europe to increase, mainly towards Scandinavian countries. 

"We have also seen very good growth in the UK in the last year, and Italy, which comes from a low base, is also consuming a significant volume of avocados," said Bard. "Additionally, the whole of Eastern Europe should start to come alive, and just by looking at social media posts, we can see that a lot of people are talking about avocados."

What WAO has observed is that to increase global consumption of the fruit, they must teach people how to diversify the methods they use the fruit. 

Targeting the younger generations who show the product online and use their platforms to teach how to consume the fruit is one of the main strategies being implemented by WAO. 

Innovation

The avocado industry is one where innovation and technology is changing continuously. The main focus is the efficient use of water and other resources.

"Irrigation technologies are changing to make avocados more efficient, and the efforts have increased considering climate change and the importance of using less water," Bard said. 

New technologies, like drones, are also finding their way into the industry, as well as new rootstocks and new varieties. 

"Varieties are a long-term game, but there are more and more varieties coming in," he said. 

Related article: World Avocado Organization triples retailer collaborations in 12 countries

The Global Avocado Summit organized by the Chilean Avocado Committee and Yentzen Group will be held on November 21 at the Casino Monticello event center in Chile.