The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) announced another revision to its export estimates, forecasting a 4% decline in lemon shipments. This decrease adds to the 19% drop in orange exports announced last week.

The decline in production is mainly attributed to strong winds and flooding in some major producing areas. Additionally, drier weather has caused smaller fruit sizes, and good local juicing prices have also been cited as contributing factors.

The CGA’s Lemon Focus Group said that, while some regions have finished packing, feedback from the remaining harvesting areas is making for “a very unusual season”.

Initial projections put lemon volumes at 37.9 million 15kg cartons. This week's adjustment brings the total estimate for 2024 exports of lemons to 33.9 million cartons. Last year, Southern Africa exported 35.6 million cartons.

"While there was an initial concern that there might be an oversupply of lemons, this is not the case anymore. Supply will be relatively stable and the demand, especially in Europe, looks good," said Lemon Focus Group Chairman Leroux Venter.

Adjustments this week by the Sundays River Valley (down almost 1 million cartons) and the Western Cape (Citrusdal down 100,000 cartons) were the most significant. 

Oranges

South African Navel orange exports are projected to reach 21 million cartons in 2024, according to the CGA’s Orange Focus Group's latest downward adjustment. If realized, this would represent a major drop of 19% in shipments, the entity told FreshFruitPortal.com.

Extreme weather events in key producing areas were the main drivers of the decline, the group said.

"Inclement weather over the past two weeks has meant further reduction in predicted volumes," said Stiaan Engelbrecht, Chairman of the Orange Focus Group.

This decrease continues the downward trajectory that started in May when the season-opening estimate of 25.7 million cartons was reduced to 22 million cartons. Late Navels are currently being packed and shipped.

Valencia orange volumes are now projected to reach 51,6 million, down from May's forecast of 56 million, and April's season opening estimate of 58 million. This is an 11% reduction from the first estimate. 

The largest downward adjustments reflected in the latest review come out of Letsitele, Hoedspruit, and the Senwes areas. Marble Hall and Groblersdal were also hard hit by recent frost damage, further reducing production forecasts.

However, Jan-Louis Pretorius, Vice Chairman of the CGA and a citrus grower in Limpopo, said the sector is looking at a “balanced market” despite not reaching the oversupply initially forecasted.

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Citrusdal floods

Recent floods in Citrusdal, a town located in the Western Cape province of South Africa, have dealt great structural damage to farming communities. Citrus farming is the main economic activity, even giving the town its name.

Authorities have warned that damages could exceed the 430 million rands ($23.16 million) caused by 2023’s floods.

Despite the delicate situation, export oranges have started moving out of the town in the past few days through a private bridge on a citrus farm after the valley was cut off. 

A provincial disaster was declared after severe rainfall two weeks ago. The Port of Cape Town is back to efficient operation.