An in-depth analysis of consumer trends in U.S. supermarkets provides valuable insights for the produce industry, helping to understand market demands and evolving consumer behavior, particularly for products like grapes.

Circana is working with major retailers and producers, using data insights from daily food sales across the U.S., to analyze the shopping patterns of households nationwide.

At the Global Grape Convention 2024, Chris Dubois, head of Circana's Fresh Fruit team, shared his insights on the current state of the U.S. market with stakeholders from the Chilean, Peruvian, and international table grape industry.

Dubois said supermarket sales have been strong recently, with a strong economy and population expansion. 

"Inflation is a big issue for the U.S. right now, grocery bills have gone up about 30% in the last five years on average," said Dubois. 

The food service sector, in particular, has been heavily impacted by inflation, leading to high restaurant prices in the U.S.

Looking ahead to the next ten years, Dubois said there are a few things that retailers and manufacturers/producers have to keep an eye on. He said one of the big things is that "since Covid, people don't go to the office as much, with almost 30% of the U.S. workforce working from home. This has shifted the population to the south and west, which means companies have to reallocate their marketing dollars to where their key audience has moved."

Hispanic population growth, which will continue to grow is a big deal in America, and if they are a target audience for a variety of products, it will be a big win for marketers. 

"The other major change is that millennials and Gen Z are taking over grocery stores, much more than Baby Boomers, so if you win with the younger consumers, you will gain a huge segment of buyers," Dubois said. 

At supermarkets, produce continues to be a solid segment, growing at 3.2% per year, reaching almost $100 billion in retail value. 

Grapes

Dubois explained that grapes have had a "phenomenal year in the U.S., and it's all about red and green grapes. However, one of the things that caught my eye was Cotton Candy grapes because they continue to grow at a ridiculously fast pace."

Even though these grapes make up only 5% of the U.S. market, they are growing 26% yearly, without any signs of slowing down, according to Dubois. 

"All I can tell you is to please continue growing Cotton Candy grapes, because they not only taste well, but they are selling a lot," said Dubois. "If you are thinking about how to continue to drive growth, different flavors, forms, colors, all really matter in terms of increasing sales."

Social media

One of the driving factors for the nearly 17% increase in grape sales this year is social media. 

"These are crazy numbers for an agricultural product, and part of it is being driven by social media, for example, the idea of people freezing grapes and consuming it as candy, is one of the twelve trends exploting on TikTok," said Dubois. "Guess who is really paying attention to these trends, it's the younger generations."

According to data from Circana, Gen Zers are spending 46% more on grapes, showing that social media can be an important tool to increase sales volumes. 

Additionally, convenience in packaging is another point that must be addressed, as consumers are looking for quick, easy, convenient packaging on all products, especially on snacking products like grapes.

Promotion from retailers

Dubois analyzed whether grapes enjoyed the same kind of credits as other fruits when looking at grocery ads. 

"We look at what items are on the front and last page, and what we see is that apples and berries get a lot of features, so there is a lot of room to increase ad space for grapes," he said. 

Dubois encouraged producers and exporters to guide supermarkets to market and present grapes more, which will help drive better sales.

He said that club stores and mass stores like Walmart, Target, Costco, and Aldi are growing much faster than traditional groceries. 

"We are seeing volume come out of traditional supermarkets and huge growth in Walmart and Target, so don't forget about those stores when you are thinking where to sell," he said. 

Where do we think about growing?

Looking at new selling opportunities and diversification, Dubois told the audience that secondary school cafeterias are a good target. 

He indicated that high schools, college cafeterias, and even McDonald's and Chick-fil-A are places with consumption potential. 

"There is a lot of room for grapes along U.S. food service, the question is what does that product look like for a McDonald's or a Chick-fil-A to pick it up," said Dubois. 

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To make a more accurate approach, it is important to look at, how people buy grapes. 

Dubois said this varies, but almost three-quarters of American households buy grapes, and there is room to grow more. So part of the growth is bringing in these new households.

These households spend, on average, $56 a year on grapes, which sets it at number two compared to other fruits on the shopping cart. 

"Think about who your heavy buyers are, and you have to know who your top 10% consumers are because it's the only way to diversify and expand your offer to these heavy consumers," he said. 

Circana also looks at what other products grape consumers are putting in their baskets. This helps plan out where they should be placed on food shelves. 

"Retailers don't often know this, so we need to help them, for example, I would place grapes right next to berries, or next to bananas, because grape buyers are also buying those products," he said. 

Overall, heavy grape consumers have higher incomes, of 5+ person households, which include young kids. Dubois said bringing more of these households in will help increase sales as well. 

The importance of grape buyers

One of the things that Circana looks at is how big is the shopping cart of grape consumers. The company found out that grapes win in this category, as an average basket with grapes is worth $99.47 to a retailer. 

"That is a very big difference with melons for example. So if you are trying to sell grapes vs melons, one of the things you can say to a retailer is, 'my grape customers spend a lot more in your store' which becomes a big deal,"  said Dubois. 

He added that grapes are growing in the snack segment, so sellers can target them as a quick, easy-to-prepare morning snack. 

"Portability and convenience is key, especially for people at their jobs, so think about packaging and how the product looks at the point of sale," he said. 

Looking ahead

Dubois ended his presentation by sharing some advice with attendees, telling them to focus on new channels, as growth is accelerating in different food retail outlets, such as club stores and mass merchandisers.

"Winning in there with the right product and volume is really going to matter," he said. "Also, focus on bringing in new households to eat grapes, as American families change all the time, bringing in new households will drive growth in your segment."

Social media and digital is the "big thing" he said, and grapes are already getting a lot of coverage, but the more they invest in it, the more they will increase consumption from younger generations. 

"It's really about heavy buyers because 43% of the volume is taken by 10% of the buyers, which is a big deal. Therefore knowing those buyers and what they are looking for will pay off," said Dubois. 

He also insisted on new flavors, saying growers must push new varieties, with new colors and flavors which can bring excitement to U.S. stores. 

Global Grape Convention 2024 was the result of the joint work of Yentzen Group with the Chilean Fruit Grape Committee and the Peruvian Association of Table Grape Producers (Provid). The event brought together 1,050 attendees and 60 participating companies.