In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we analyze the forecast for 2024's Washington apple production. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA) has announced its forecast for the 2024 Washington state fresh apple crop, projecting a harvest of 124 million standard forty-pound boxes.

This estimate marks a return to historical norms following two atypical years marked by extreme weather conditions. The forecast suggests a robust and high-quality crop across all varieties, bolstered by favorable growing conditions throughout the season.

The 2024 forecast signals a stabilization in apple production after a period of fluctuation. The state produced 122.5 million boxes in 2020 and 122.9 million in 2021. However, a cold and wet 2022 resulted in a reduced yield of 103.9 million boxes, followed by a significant rebound in 2023 with 136.1 million boxes. This year’s moderate weather, characterized by a temperate spring and a warm early summer, has provided optimal conditions for apple growth, leading to a promising harvest. Jon DeVaney, President of the WSTFA, expressed optimism regarding the 2024 crop.

"There is a lot of excitement as we are seeing a more normal harvest and excellent fruit quality this year," DeVaney stated. "Our domestic and foreign customers can expect the flavor, size, color, and overall high quality that make Washington apples famous. The harvest is underway now, and I congratulate our growers for producing another great crop."

The WSTFA forecast highlights growth across Washington’s top apple varieties. Gala apples are projected to dominate the market, accounting for 19% of the total production, followed by Granny Smith at 14.5%, Red Delicious at 13%, Honeycrisp at 12%, and Fuji at 10.5%.

Notably, the Cosmic Crisp®, a relatively new variety developed by Washington State University, is expected to comprise 9% of this year’s crop. This marks a substantial increase in popularity since its introduction in 2019. Organic apple production is also on the rise, now representing nearly 16% of the total crop. This growth reflects increasing consumer demand for organic produce. Washington State remains the leader in organic apple production, contributing over 90% of the nation’s supply.

"Our growers work hard to deliver the apples that consumers want and enjoy, and for many consumers that includes organics," DeVaney added.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)